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Conjecturing Stock Market Movements In FY26

11 0
25.05.2025

If Sensex data is looked at on a weekly basis, it ended on March 29, 2024, at 73,651. One year later, on March 28, 2025, it was at 77,415. The increase was just 5.1%. Interestingly, if the week-ending data is examined for the year, it peaked at 85,571 for the week ending September 27, 2024. The low was 72,644 on May 10, 2024. The variation has been around 13,000 points.

For the 52-week period, the Sensex was less than 75,000 for 11 weeks. For 25 weeks, it was between 75,000 and 80,000 and above 80,000 for 16 weeks. Therefore, on the whole, the performance was more than satisfactory. From mid-July to mid-October, the index was above 80,000, giving a sense of stability. In a way, it can be said that the level of 70,000 has been maintained irrespective of the economic conditions.

In the present financial year, for the 7 weeks ending May 16, 2025, it was less than 76,000 for 2 weeks when the tariff regime of the US was announced. On May 16, it was 82,330. The two random shocks, the terrorist attack in Kashmir and the time India retaliated, were when the index went to less than 80,000. Otherwise, it has been business as usual for the markets and investors.

The significance of all these numbers is that, for the entire year, the stock index has been range-bound.

The year was quite tumultuous for the economy as such. First, growth was lower at possibly 6.5% against 9.2% last year. Second, corporate profitability was low over all 4 quarters, with the top-line and bottom-line growth being in single digits. This is one factor which has also affected the GDP growth, as value added........

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