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India’s Balancing Act: Navigating Trump’s Unpredictable Geopolitical Shifts

16 0
03.03.2025

Former U.S. President, Donald Trump’s foreign policy has always been characterized by an “America First” approach, often at the expense of traditional alliances. His recent controversial actions—such as isolating U.S. allies, supporting Russia in the United Nations by refusing to name it as an aggressor, and potentially attempting to draw Russia away from China—signal a major shift in global geopolitics. These moves will have far-reaching consequences, affecting not just Europe and Asia but also India’s strategic positioning. Below is a detailed breakdown of these developments and their implications.

How Will India Be Impacted?

Implications for India-Russia Relations; If Trump successfully pulls Russia away from China, India could benefit. Moscow has historically been a key defense and energy partner for New Delhi. A Russia less dependent on China would mean fewer concerns for India about Russia-China military cooperation and arms transfers.

Strategic Balancing in the Indo-Pacific; India has been strengthening its partnerships with the U.S., Japan, and Australia through the QUAD, while also maintaining its historical ties with Russia. If Trump weakens U.S. alliances in Asia, India might need to play a more proactive role in regional security, possibly taking a leadership position in balancing China’s aggression.

China’s Growing Regional Dominance; if Trump completely isolates U.S. allies, China could become the dominant force in Asia, challenging India’s security interests. This could lead to increased Chinese assertiveness along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and in South Asia, particularly in countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar.

Economic and Trade Considerations; If Trump’s policies lead to global trade disruptions, India could face both risks and opportunities. A breakdown in U.S.-China trade relations might push American companies to invest more in India, but economic instability could also negatively impact Indian exports.

Defense and Technology Transfers; A shift in U.S.-Russia relations under Trump could impact India’s defense procurement. If Russia moves closer to the U.S., India might find it easier to continue buying Russian weapons without facing U.S. sanctions under CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act). However, any significant U.S.-Russia cooperation could also impact India’s defense partnerships with both nations.

Fallout of Trump’s Move to Isolate Allies

Weakened Transatlantic Relations;........

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