This week’s elections to Bangladesh’s National Assembly are less an exercise in democratic routine than a referendum on the country’s political and ideological future, something which world capitals are deeply interested in understanding.

What was once scheduled as a conventional transfer of power is now unfolding in an atmosphere of street violence, labour unrest, bureaucratic capture, and deep ideological polarisation, in what can best be described as the unstable aftermath of the dramatic collapse of Sheikh Hasina’s government in August 2024.

However, as Indian diplomats have said privately, any elected government is a better alternative than having a chaotic interim government continue to rule out of Dhaka—some form of a people’s mandate is better than an inimical power centre, which is pulled by many strings and belongs to none.

Disorder as the new normal

In recent days, disorder has ceased to be episodic and has instead become the background condition of politics. Last week, after Friday prayers in central Dhaka, activists linked to an Islamic party clashed with the police in running battles that left dozens injured and many detained.

Two forces dominate this fractured terrain. One is the BNP, which has governed intermittently whenever the Awami League has been out of power. The other is Jamaat-e-Islami, a party still haunted by its role in 1971, when it collaborated with the Pakistani army during Bangladesh’s war of independence—an episode that ended in mass atrocities and genocide.

Yet Jamaat never disappeared from the ballot box or from politics. It has consistently polled between 5 and 12 per cent in every election and now appears poised for its strongest showing yet.

BNP momentum and baggage

The presence of Tarique........

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