Indian agriculture faces a serious climate risk in 2026-27. El Niño is taking a toll. We are halfway through the four-month southwest monsoon cycle (June to September), and the picture is one of concern.

Earlier, despite the late onset and tardy progress of the southwest monsoon in June, copious rains in July prevented drought-like conditions and brought a sense of relief for stakeholders in the farm sector.

Yet, as of July 31, the rainfall deficiency nationwide is 13 per cent (-13%). Out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 subdivisions still face a serious deficit in precipitation. These include Punjab, Haryana, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, parts of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. In other words, the spatial distribution of rains so far is less than satisfactory.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) recently said rainfall in August and September would be below normal. This is sure to hurt Kharif crop conditions and harvest prospects.

Kharif Outlook Weakens

As of July 24, the planted area for key crops, such as paddy, pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds and cotton, is actually trailing last year’s........

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