With less than two weeks left for the first phase of polling on November 6, the Bihar election campaign blitz is all set to pick up pace. The election is not only a crucial test for the leadership of Janata Dal United (JDU) chief Nitish Kumar, who has served multiple terms as chief minister, thanks to his ability to forge and break political alliances at his convenience, but also for the BJP, which has long aspired to become a dominant player in the state where traditional factors like caste arithmetic and alliance management influence the poll outcome.

If the NDA is projected to have an edge in a closely fought election, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav, alongside Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, is also seen as a strong contender for power.

Going by opinion polls and early trends in the ongoing campaign, the NDA should not worry a lot but needs to work hard because of Prashant Kishor’s entry into poll politics with his Jan Suraj Party (JSP), introducing an element of unpredictability.

However, pre-poll surveys and early trends cannot be relied upon entirely, although ground reports suggest that the election could be a repeat of the 2020 contest.

Given the unpredictable nature of poll politics in India, with caste intricacies, welfare schemes, polarisation, and competitive leadership throwing surprises, if opinion surveys have mapped the Bihar voters’ mood correctly, then the MGB is likely to struggle to reach the majority mark, as political observers say the traditional bifurcation of Bihar’s political landscape with the well-entrenched vote banks shows little mobility.

This means the 10 per cent-plus vote share that Kishor’s........

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