‘Putin’s Playbook’ author Rebekah Koffler discusses Vladimir Putin’s amplified nuclear threats and weighs in on what the posturing of the U.S. should be.

As we welcome the New Year and the Russia-Ukraine conflict approaches its third year, many on both sides of the Atlantic are anxious to know whether Ukraine has any chance of winning the war in 2024 or if a peace settlement could be achieved. Last year, I correctly predicted that 2023 would see the "hottest phase" of what has become the biggest and bloodiest war in Europe since World War II. Here’s my assessment for 2024.

Moscow will likely escalate hostilities in the first quarter of the year, aiming to force Kyiv to capitulate, ahead of Vladimir Putin’s run for re-election in March. As neither Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy nor the Biden administration are likely to hand Putin such a clear victory – losing face in the process by signing a peace agreement on Putin’s terms.

BIDEN’S 'AS LONG AS IT TAKES' APPROACH IN UKRAINE HAS FAILED: HERE’S WHY

A unit of border guards on the front line in trenches on Dec. 26, 2022, in Bakhmut, Ukraine. A large swath of the Donetsk region has been held by Russian-backed separatists since 2014. (Pierre Crom/Getty Images)

Alternatively, and more likely, none of the three sides – Moscow, Kyiv and Washington – would be willing to compromise. In this case, the conflict will grind on until it reaches the threshold when the level of attrition of Ukrainian manpower becomes unacceptable to its citizens – probably in summer, early fall – or till the U.S. government stops sending weapons and money to Kyiv. At that point, active combat operations will gradually transition to low intensity fighting, with occasional flare-ups. And by 2025, the conflict will be "frozen," with no formal peace settlement in place.

Contrary to President Biden’s and the Washington establishment’s expectations, and tragically for Ukrainians, Kyiv's victory remains mathematically impossible. Here’s the basis for my analysis.

Russia holds an overwhelming military and economic advantage over its former Soviet satellite. Since the very start of the war, Russia has held an overwhelming military and economic advantage over its former Soviet satellite. Despite the valor of its citizens and episodic tactical successes – such as a missile strike on Tuesday that damaged a Russian warship in the occupied Crimean port of Feodosia – strategically, Ukraine is in a deadlock with Russia, fighting a losing battle of attrition.

There’s a reason why the Pentagon considers Russia a "near peer competitor." The war in Ukraine, has not changed this view, according to Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall. Kendall........

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