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During the next year and beyond, the United States will likely face a range of "most direct, serious threats," according to the 2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC). The report was released to the public, in an unclassified version, on March 11 and presented to senior congressional leaders in a series of classified briefings.

When serving in the Defense Intelligence Agency, I participated in the drafting and coordination of this type of highly classified report, and briefed its conclusions to senior Pentagon officials, congressional staffers, combatant commanders and war planners, as well as White House national security staff. Here’s my analytic rendition of the 41-page document, enhanced by my own intelligence expertise and direct experience with the process that involves 18 IC agencies. I’ve selected the threats that, in my professional judgment, present the gravest danger to the U.S. homeland.

China's leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Kim Jong Un of North Korea (Getty Images)

China, Russia, Iran and North Korea remain America’s traditional long-term adversaries. While none of these countries has any intentions to launch an unprovoked kinetic attack against the homeland, let alone stage an invasion using military force, all of them have developed doctrines and capabilities to wage asymmetric warfare inside the U.S. This type of non-kinetic warfare involves cyberstrikes, counterspace weapons, covert operatives, biological and chemical agents, and capabilities that cause anomalous health conditions, such as the Havana Syndrome, which can cause brain injuries.

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Russia and China are generally more advanced across the full spectrum of these capabilities than Iran and North Korea. Asymmetric tactics enable these foes to do us harm gradually, below the threshold of a direct response by our military.

Activities involving some of these capabilities are employed by our adversaries today, during peacetime. They do this as part of the process that the U.S. military calls "intelligence preparation of the battlefield." It includes activities such as mapping out access to our computer systems and networks, infiltrating operatives into the country, in order to conduct sabotage during wartime, stealing our technological secrets, identifying military, government and commercial targets, and spying on and compromising........

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