Fox News Digital foreign affairs freelance consultant Rebekah Koffler unpacks the reality of any nuclear threats or conflicts from Russia and North Korea.

As the crisis in the Middle East continues to escalate amid concerns of an anticipated Iranian attack on Israel in retaliation for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh last week in Tehran, Russian President Vladimir Putin advised Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to avoid Israeli civilian casualties. This message was delivered by Russia’s Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, who met with Iranian leaders including President Masoud Pezeshkian, on Monday in Tehran.

Now, why would the Russian "murderous dictator," as President Biden once called Putin, do this at the time when the Pentagon is boosting its military presence in the Middle East in preparation for what Secretary of State Antony Blinken termed as an "imminent" attack on Israel by Iran and Hezbollah?

The worst-case scenario that many national security professionals are now worried about is a broader war in the Middle East. And if that happens, the big question is: Would Russia, the world’s largest nuclear power and a top U.S. antagonist, align itself with Iran? Because if it did, it would have catastrophic consequences for the region and the world.

WHY PUTIN PREFERS HARRIS OVER TRUMP IN THE WHITE HOUSE

There’s an assumption now in Washington that Putin would automatically side with Tehran and against Israel and the United States. After all, Iran has been providing Moscow with hundreds of ballistic missiles, drones and other munitions to fight against Ukraine. The U.S., on the other hand, has been flowing advanced weapons and cash to Ukraine to help degrade the Russian military.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during their meeting in Sochi, Russia, on Sept. 12, 2019. (Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)

But Putin’s decision calculus is not simple. His relationship with Israel and Tehran is not linear, but rather it's driven by complex considerations. Here’s why Putin almost certainly doesn’t want a devastating strike on Israel.

Throughout his presidency and until the invasion of Ukraine, Putin has pursued a largely pro-Israel policy. Not because he is a nice guy, but because he is a pragmatist. Since becoming president in 2000, Putin has drastically improved the Russian-Israeli relationship. After decades of hostile........

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