Opinion

Midterm history massively favors Democrats. But they are making a big mistake

Instead of affordability, Democrats are building an investigative operation targeting Trump, his Cabinet and family

By Matt Schuck Fox News

Published September 21, 2026 5:00am EDT

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Parents of man killed by illegal immigrant truck driver make heart-wrenching challenge to Democratic Party

Elizabeth and Dennis Carter, whose son Billy and his wife Jenny were killed allegedly by an illegal immigrant truck driver, criticize former President Joe Biden’s ‘catch-and-release’ policy and Democratic lawmakers’ immigration policies on ‘Hannity.’

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Every two years, Washington performs the same ritual. The out-of-power party smells blood, the pundits write the eulogy early and by October the outcome seems like a foregone conclusion. But the history behind that confidence is more complicated than most imagine. What matters most in 2026 is not the electoral math – it’s what the party asking for power actually plans to do if they win.

Over the last 80 years, the president's party has lost seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 18 of 20 midterm elections. Political scientists call it the thermostat effect: Hand one party control of government and the electorate instinctively seeks a counterweight, regardless of performance.

Voter turnout compounds the challenge for the incumbent party. The winners tend to relax, while the losing side stays angry and shows up to the polls. Presidential elections offer a choice between two visions; midterms become a referendum on the party in charge.

REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK: HOUSE CONTROL COULD........

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