The clock is ticking as oil markets barrel toward nightmare scenarios with the West bracing for ‘tank bottoms’ and Iran racing to delay ‘tank tops’

The West and Iran are staring down two diametrically opposed oil market emergencies that could materialize in a matter of weeks.

With the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed more than two months after the U.S. and Israel launched their war against Iran, oil inventories among top consuming countries are rapidly disappearing.

Frederic Lasserre, head of analysis at commodities trading giant Gunvor Group, said at an industry conference in late April that if the closure drags on for another month, oil markets will effectively run out of stockpiles and hit “tank bottoms.”

Similarly, analysts at JPMorgan said that oil inventories in OECD countries will hit “operational minimums” sometime between May 9 and May 30, “at which point price increases become exponential rather than linear.”

At the same time, the U.S. naval blockade has bottled up Iran’s oil exports, sending its own inventories higher as supplies have nowhere to go. If storage is maxed out and the industry hits “tank tops,” producers will have to drastically slash output, risking permanent damage to oilfields.

Coincidentally, Tehran faces a comparable timeline as the West does. Officials familiar with Iran’s energy policy told Bloomberg that the country has a narrowing window of roughly a month, at current production levels,........

© Fortune