Agricultural economist explains why you’re paying 32% more for lettuce and 20% more for tomatoes — and why it will stay that way

From tomatoes and berries to lettuce and peppers, shoppers are feeling sticker shock in the produce aisle.

Recent headlines have focused in particular on soaring tomato prices. They spiked by roughly one-fifth from June 2025 to June 2026, according to consumer price data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But across the board, fruits and vegetables have gotten more expensive. Lettuce prices jumped by about 32% during that same 12-month period, while prices for all fresh vegetables increased about 10%. Fresh fruit saw smaller hikes, with apples up 7% and citrus fruit prices rising 6%..

As an agricultural economist, I see a complex mix of factors at work: extreme weather, worker shortages and rising labor costs, and high energy and shipping prices, as well as fallout from the Trump administration’s trade policies, just to name a few. And because some of these inflation drivers affect multiple sectors, costs are building up throughout the supply chain.

The breadth of these factors suggests that widespread relief may not come quickly. But inflation-weary shoppers can still take some steps to ease the sting of high prices.

What’s driving higher fruit and vegetable prices?

To start with, weather disruptions have cut supply and pushed prices up.

Unusual freezes in Florida in early 2026, for example, hit a variety of crops – including citrus, strawberries, blueberries, tomatoes and sweet corn – leading to yield losses and higher prices.

Imports also play a critical role in the U.S. food supply, especially during the winter........

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