A moonshot to avoid a $39 trillion national debt crisis will rely on AI productivity going even better than bulls are hoping for, says JPMorgan

Good morning. On Fortune’s radar today:

What SpaceX’s S-1 tells us about the AI funding funnel

The best case for debt is still pretty bad, says JPMorgan economist

The Fed’s path to 2% has got some way to go

Yet another gender gap is emerging in AI usage

S&P 500 futures are down 0.15%. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.51% in early trading and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 is down 0.81% before lunch.

Asia: Even South Korea’s KOSPI is down, falling 0.53%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down 0.47%. India’s Nifty 50 is flat. China’s CSI 300 is up 0.12%. 

Brent crude is a little under $96 a barrel this morning.

Bitcoin is down to $73,335. 

Determined to focus on peace

The ceasefire is looking a little more firing and a little less ceasing this morning. According to reports, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has targeted an unspecified U.S. air base in the Middle East following U.S. strikes over the Strait of Hormuz. 

The IRGC did not say where in the region it had targeted the base, but Kuwait, which is home to a U.S. base, said it had intercepted hostile missile and drone threats—according to the BBC—though it didn’t specify where from. 

Israel has also issued an evacuation order for southern Lebanon, after the Israel Defense Forces said it would use "extreme force" targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. 

Despite the action, markets remain committed to the view that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will be successful, with global oil supply normalizing as a result. 

“Investors are eyeing U.S. domestic political pressures as grounds for expecting a resolution, in spite of Trump’s denials,” UBS’s Paul Donovan said this morning. “Trump’s approval rating hit a new low in a recent opinion poll, and the administration is being directly blamed for higher prices.”

SpaceX's AI funding plan

Fortune’s Shawn Tully has spotted another interesting tidbit in SpaceX’s S-1 filing ahead of a highly anticipated $80 billion IPO: SpaceX has already pledged the largest part by far of what’s expected to be the largest sum ever raised in an IPO to third parties.

As my colleague Shawn highlights, the reasoning is that CEO Elon Musk is essentially betting the future on gigantic growth in the new AI........

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