The escalating U.S.–Iran war is rewriting the CEO playbook again

In today’s CEO Daily: What to watch for as the U.S.–Iran conflict reignites.

The big leadership story: Ulta’s $400 million bet on the flagship store model.

The markets: Stocks dive after the U.S. and Iran exchange airstrikes.

Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.

Good morning. If you thought geopolitical risk was fading from your strategic planning picture, think again. The U.S.–Iran war escalated over the weekend, and crude prices are already reacting. Here’s what leaders need to be watching.

Energy prices are likely to surge again. Global oil demand is down, mainly because of China and other Asian countries. But U.S. consumption is up, despite pump prices that are about 50% higher than before the Iran war. Some shipping routes remain open in the Strait of Hormuz but few ships are likely to use them right now. With nearly 1 billion barrels of global petroleum reserves now depleted and Trump’s declaration that the peace deal is over, energy analysts tell my colleague Jordan Blum that prices are likely to settle closer to $90 per barrel and possibly go as high as $200.

Consumers–and voters–could be coming for you. Americans tend to conflate what they pay at the pump with broader energy prices that include electricity, natural gas and renewables. Overall energy prices impact public opinion in other ways. The energy consumption of data centers is one reason why American consumers hate AI. They’re taking a closer look at who’s profiting amid their pain. Last year, 51........

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