World Cup final is already the biggest ever prediction market as Kalshi bets top $1.27 billion—with Spain favored to beat Argentina

The World Cup is driving record-breaking activity on prediction markets, with popular platforms Kalshi and Polymarket reporting their highest trading volumes to date. Just days ahead of Sunday’s final, the Argentina–Spain contract has become the single largest market in the platforms’ history, while overall World Cup trading has outpaced other major sports-related contracts.

According to data shared by Kalshi, the contract for the outcome of the Argentina–Spain final, which went live Wednesday following Argentina’s win over England, has already surpassed $1.27 billion in trading volume. As of mid-day Friday, bets on Kalshi showed the Spanish team with 61% odds to prevail over Lionel Messi’s squad. 

As of Tuesday morning, total trading across World Cup contracts had exceeded $25 billion—dwarfing volumes seen in other major sports markets, including roughly $2 billion for the NBA finals and $1 billion for the Super Bowl.

Polymarket has seen a similar surge in activity,........

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