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U.S. President Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury achieved nothing strategically. In typical Roy Cohn fashion, the president has declared victory. But the reported terms of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding tell a different story. It seems that Washington and Tehran will now negotiate over Iran’s nuclear program, Iran will be able to export oil under a special waiver for 60 days, and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. The last issue remains murky, however. Although Trump has triumphantly declared freedom of navigation in the strait—a return to the prewar status quo—Iranian officials claim that this only applies to the two months covered in the MOU. Thereafter, they will impose a fee for transit.

Why exactly did the United States fight this war? Based on what is known about the agreement, Americans, U.S. partners in the region, consumers around the world, and possibly even long-suffering Iranians were better off before the United States and Israel launched their war on Feb. 28. Over the weekend, Trump stated that if Iran did not honor its commitments in the MOU, the United States would be the “guardian of the Middle East.” In fact, Trump’s failure in Iran is likely to trigger something else altogether: a U.S. withdrawal. It is not just the president who is likely to use the MOU to disengage Washington from the Middle East. There are few members of Congress, presidential candidates, government officials, and would-be government officials who will now want to spend the political, military, and financial resources to stay. The circumstances are different, but it feels like December 1971 all over again.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury achieved nothing strategically. In typical Roy Cohn fashion, the president has declared victory. But the reported terms of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding tell a........

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