Russia’s War in Ukraine

Understanding the conflict four years on.

Andrius Kubilius, the European Union’s commissioner for defense and space, is facing a challenge not seen in 100 years or more, he says.

On the geopolitical stage, the EU must regain its balance atop shifting tectonic plates: Russia is again a threat, powers like China are rising, and the United States is reducing its commitment to the defense of Europe under a new program dubbed “NATO 3.0.” On the battlefield, the rise of drones and autonomous warfare is calling into question the viability of the traditional weapons and tactics in use for decades.

Andrius Kubilius, the European Union’s commissioner for defense and space, is facing a challenge not seen in 100 years or more, he says.

On the geopolitical stage, the EU must regain its balance atop shifting tectonic plates: Russia is again a threat, powers like China are rising, and the United States is reducing its commitment to the defense of Europe under a new program dubbed “NATO 3.0.” On the battlefield, the rise of drones and autonomous warfare is calling into question the viability of the traditional weapons and tactics in use for decades.

In response, the EU is wielding its vast financial power to solve the problem: $68 billion to help Ukraine’s defense industries, $170 billion in defense loans offered to EU members, plus billions more for other initiatives. It’s also tying its fate closer to Ukraine through joint-production agreements, seeing the country’s now powerful military as a new asset for Europe.

But allocating money is only half the battle—next comes the political fight over what weapons to buy, whom to buy them from, and how to use them. Each choice comes with a complex political calculus, from facing U.S. pressure to buy American weapons to navigating a defense industrial complex that favors buying tanks, not drones.

In an interview on July 23, Kubilius outlined his thinking on balancing U.S. pressure with EU needs, how the EU can learn from Ukraine, and where EU defense acquisition needs to go.

This interview has been edited for clarity and length.

Foreign Policy: What does the NATO 3.0 plan mean for you? Or are you ignoring it?

Andrius Kubilius: We are not ignoring it—we were talking about that from the very beginning.

We have two challenges in Europe: One is that Russia can test [NATO’s collective defense], and we need to be ready. And second is that because of geopolitical changes, because of China’s rising power, the Americans will start to move their resources to the Indo-Pacific, and we need to be ready for that.

I do not have any rational arguments against this strategy of NATO 3.0, which means that we Europeans need to take primary responsibility for conventional European defense.

The only question is how to do it. I mean, it would be good to know much more clearly [what the] American plans [are]—how, what, and from where they will........

© Foreign Policy