Russia’s War in Ukraine

Understanding the conflict four years on.

In 1978, Gen. John Hackett vividly imagined how a global war between NATO and the Soviet Union might play out in The Third World War. The novel, based in part on interviews with members of the military and other experts, was a sensation at the time. It depicts the United States and Europe battling an invading Soviet army, with one chilling chapter describing the nuclear annihilation of Birmingham, England.

If Russia Wins, written by German international relations scholar Carlo Masala, starts from a similar basis. Like Hackett, Masala has consulted with experts and government officials to author a thriller-like work of speculative fiction, focusing on a Russian challenge to NATO via Estonia after a victory in Ukraine.

In 1978, Gen. John Hackett vividly imagined how a global war between NATO and the Soviet Union might play out in The Third World War. The novel, based in part on interviews with members of the military and other experts, was a sensation at the time. It depicts the United States and Europe battling an invading Soviet army, with one chilling chapter describing the nuclear annihilation of Birmingham, England.

If Russia Wins, written by German international relations scholar Carlo Masala, starts from a similar basis. Like Hackett, Masala has consulted with experts and government officials to author a thriller-like work of speculative fiction, focusing on a Russian challenge to NATO via Estonia after a victory in Ukraine.

But in reflection of today’s world, the book is less focused on military strategy than Hackett’s was. Instead, it centers on the political question: If Russia were to challenge NATO, would NATO respond? In other words, would NATO really risk the destruction of Birmingham for a bit of Estonian territory?

As with any speculative work of political science, it’s easy to quibble with the minutiae of the scenario that Masala sketches. Yet it’s not hard to see why If Russia Wins has quickly become an international bestseller. Masala’s depiction of the near-future is not only plausible—it also acts as........

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