This article appears in the Winter 2025 issue of Foreign Policy magazine.

Donald Trump is commonly described as transactional. At some level, however, all leaders are transactional. What defines the U.S. president-elect is his unabashed opportunism, often at the expense of values, alliances, and even treaties. For Trump, who co-wrote the 1987 book The Art of the Deal, every transaction is zero-sum, with a clear winner and loser. More than anything else, Trump likes to be seen as a winner, even when he isn’t.

Pundits reflexively see Trump’s nakedly transactional nature as an attribute that might terrify other global stakeholders. The reality is more complicated. States that have come to rely on U.S.-backed alliances will certainly need to recalibrate. Global markets will experience turbulence. But countries and companies will also sniff out opportunities. The ones with the means to do so will look to exploit the president-elect’s tendency to prioritize his self-interest. As Trump begins a second term, world leaders and corporate executives are more prepared than they were in 2016. They have not only learned lessons from his first stint in the White House but also since pored over abundant reporting about Trump’s non-traditional leadership style, his what’s-in-it-for-me mindset, and his reliance on family members for dealmaking.

Donald Trump is commonly described as transactional. At some level, however, all leaders are transactional. What defines the U.S. president-elect is his unabashed opportunism, often at the expense of values, alliances, and even treaties. For Trump, who co-wrote the 1987 book The Art of the Deal, every transaction is zero-sum, with a clear winner and loser. More than anything else, Trump likes to be seen as a winner, even when he isn’t.

Pundits reflexively see Trump’s nakedly transactional nature as an attribute that might terrify other global stakeholders. The reality is more complicated. States that have come to rely on U.S.-backed alliances will certainly need to recalibrate. Global markets will experience turbulence. But countries and companies will also sniff out opportunities. The ones with the means to do so will look to exploit the president-elect’s tendency to prioritize his self-interest. As Trump begins a second term, world leaders and corporate executives are more prepared than they were in 2016. They have not only learned lessons from his first stint in the White House but also since pored over abundant reporting about Trump’s non-traditional leadership style, his what’s-in-it-for-me mindset, and his reliance on family members for dealmaking.

Trump may retain his ability to shock, but the world is no longer surprised by an opportunistic United States. The post-World War II order that managed the globe for seven decades had already begun to fray before Trump’s first term. Countries that aspired to abide by an equal, rules-based international system have watched as Washington has resisted sharing power in multilateral bodies such as the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. China’s unprecedented rise, along with a growing global disillusionment with free trade and globalization, has turned the United States toward protectionism and made it less likely to privilege norms and professed values when they conflict with interests. This trend was already underway, perhaps most visibly since the start of the Iraq War two decades ago. Trump’s return will only accelerate a move toward a more transactional global system.

The world will navigate Trump’s zero-sum mindset in a variety of ways. For countries that have historically relied on Washington’s friendship, the next years will bring painful disruptions. At a campaign event last February, Trump recounted how he told an unidentified NATO member he would encourage aggressors to “do whatever the hell they want” if that country hadn’t allocated what he........

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