According to U.S. President Donald Trump, “the biggest surprise” of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has been Tehran’s drone and missile attacks on the Gulf countries. Countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have spent years building themselves into global hubs for business, finance, energy, and aviation. Part of that deal was a secure environment backstopped by the presence of U.S. military bases.

Have Iran’s attacks pierced the Gulf’s bubble of security? Will the Gulf countries now join U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran? Or will the events of the last week make them more likely to swing to China instead?

According to U.S. President Donald Trump, “the biggest surprise” of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has been Tehran’s drone and missile attacks on the Gulf countries. Countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have spent years building themselves into global hubs for business, finance, energy, and aviation. Part of that deal was a secure environment backstopped by the presence of U.S. military bases.

Have Iran’s attacks pierced the Gulf’s bubble of security? Will the Gulf countries now join U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran? Or will the events of the last week make them more likely to swing to China instead?

On the latest episode of FP Live, I spoke with two regional experts for answers: Abu Dhabi-based Mina Al-Oraibi, the editor in chief of the National, and Firas Maksad, the managing director of the Middle East and North Africa practice at the Eurasia Group. Subscribers can watch the full discussion on the video box atop this page or download the free FP Live podcast. What follows here is a lightly edited and condensed transcript.

Ravi Agrawal: Mina, you’re in Abu Dhabi, quite literally in the thick of things. Iran has attacked the UAE [United Arab Emirates] as much as Israel over the last few days. What is the mood on the ground?

Mina Al-Oraibi: They’ve actually attacked the UAE more than Israel, in terms of percentage of projectiles. Fifty percent of what Iran has sent out to the region, to seven different countries, came toward the UAE. Thank goodness for good defense systems and good planning because over 95 percent of the cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones have been intercepted.

How’s the mood? The mood is one of resilience. It’s been really interesting to see how people reacted. In the first couple of days, people were quite shaken. And then people got to know more about the defense systems and the protection it offers, and the government was very quick in communicating with people. There was some concern in the first couple of days about grocery shopping and whether there would be enough supplies; that’s all been addressed. People see that, actually, day-to-day life is OK.

It doesn’t take away from the fact that this has been a shock for many people in terms of the amount of strikes from Iran, and the fact that the UAE (along with the other Gulf countries) was not spared even though they were actually pushing for peace and did not allow their bases to be used. The biggest surprise for many people is that even Oman was targeted by the Iranians, at the Duqm port. Of course, Oman had been the mediator in the previous round of talks. Oman has very close ties to Iran. And so it was a surprise that the Iranians would go out after every single one of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members.

RA: Firas, the Gulf states made a choice over the last several decades to host American military infrastructure. And the logic of American bases was American protection. A piece in FP yesterday by Khalid al-Jaber and Omar Rahman put it very well: “What was intended as a shield increasingly looks like a magnet.” How is this bargain playing out?

Firas Maksad: The Iranian attempt here to play on any divisions and fissures between the U.S. and its GCC partners is simply not working. In fact, from my various conversations with leaders in the region, it’s actually pushing them to close ranks with the United States. We have to be realistic here. It’s not like these GCC states have alternatives to the U.S. security umbrella. They’re not going to be running to China anytime soon. Although almost all of the U.S.’s Gulf partners have China as their largest economic partner, China doesn’t really offer a military defense alternative. Nor does Russia, for that matter.

Iran’s concerted, clear strategy to try to play on those divisions is largely backfiring. Many of those states are right now considering revoking the initial limitations that they had placed on U.S. forces because they did not want to aggravate Iran and were pushing for a diplomatic solution. But now they feel like the Iranians are pressing them and they might not have a choice. I don’t think that they will go on the offensive. Most military experts, certainly here in Washington, D.C., don’t see much of an upside and are not encouraging those countries to actively take the fight to Iran.........

© Foreign Policy