The Russian oblast of Kaliningrad, sandwiched uncomfortably between Poland and Lithuania, has long been Moscow’s forward-most outpost in Europe and thus an invaluable asset for Russian power projection. The former Prussian city of Konigsberg, which was renamed Kaliningrad by the Soviets in 1946, is an armed-to-the-teeth battle post and principal naval base for Russia’s Baltic fleet. It also lies more than 400 miles from Russia proper and just two to three hours by car from the major port city of Gdansk in Poland.

For the Baltic countries, Russia’s “dagger in the heart of Europe” causes not just sleepless nights but full-on nightmares. After all, the land route from central Europe to Lithuania, as well as Latvia and Estonia beyond it, passes through a narrow neck of land called the Suwalki Gap—a roughly 40-mile-long, sparsely populated borderland linking Poland and Lithuania. On either side, perched menacingly, are Kaliningrad and Russian ally Belarus. A Russian blitz offensive from Belarus could sever it in days, shattering NATO’s territorial integrity and creating the daunting task of the West retaking it.

The Russian oblast of Kaliningrad, sandwiched uncomfortably between Poland and Lithuania, has long been Moscow’s forward-most outpost in Europe and thus an invaluable asset for Russian power projection. The former Prussian city of Konigsberg, which was renamed Kaliningrad by the Soviets in 1946, is an armed-to-the-teeth battle post and principal naval base for Russia’s Baltic fleet. It also lies more than 400 miles from Russia proper and just two to three hours by car from the major port city of Gdansk in Poland.

For the Baltic countries, Russia’s “dagger in the heart of Europe” causes not just sleepless nights but full-on nightmares. After all, the land route from central Europe to Lithuania, as well as Latvia and Estonia beyond it, passes through a narrow neck of land called the Suwalki Gap—a roughly 40-mile-long, sparsely populated borderland linking Poland and Lithuania. On either side, perched menacingly, are Kaliningrad and Russian ally Belarus. A Russian blitz offensive from Belarus could sever it in days, shattering NATO’s territorial integrity and creating the daunting task of the West retaking it.

“Kaliningrad is highly militarized, basically a fortress,” said Stephen Hall, a Russian and post-Soviet politics professor at the University of Bath. He noted the navy’s dominant presence and the nuclear-capable Iskander-M ballistic missiles that have been stationed in Kaliningrad since at least 2016. “Since the Cold War’s end, Russia had been gaming scenarios to cut the gap, isolate the Baltics, and take them,” he said.

NATO has never had a credible answer to the scenario of the Russian armed forces slicing through the corridor, cutting........

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