As the war in Ukraine grinds into its fourth year, European leaders can do little more than sit and wait to learn what U.S. President Donald Trump’s supposed plan is to end the conflict, or whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will respond to Trump’s recent threat of tariffs and sanctions.

Few believe Putin will call time on Russian hostility to the West, which is why many officials have argued that 2025 will see a dramatic escalation in the Kremlin’s propaganda war.

As the war in Ukraine grinds into its fourth year, European leaders can do little more than sit and wait to learn what U.S. President Donald Trump’s supposed plan is to end the conflict, or whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will respond to Trump’s recent threat of tariffs and sanctions.

Few believe Putin will call time on Russian hostility to the West, which is why many officials have argued that 2025 will see a dramatic escalation in the Kremlin’s propaganda war.

“Putin doesn’t have the intent or capacity to use conventional threats against the West, but he can still use unconventional or ‘hybrid  warfare to seek to divide the West, especially in Europe,” said John Foreman, the United Kingdom’s former defense attaché to Moscow and Kyiv.

Between a rise in populism, distrust between nations, and economic uncertainty across the continent, it’s a sunny forecast for a disruptor like Putin. “Putin might look at Europe and see cracks in unity that he can stick in a crowbar and pull open,” said Mark Galeotti, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank.

Why, given all the problems he has on his plate, might Putin want to spread disunity in Europe? “The West is far more powerful than Russia, whatever metric you use,” Galeotti said. “If you can paralyze countries politically, you drastically diminish their ability to do things like provide support for Ukraine or coordinate policy against Russia.”

The Kremlin has a long history of using hybrid warfare tactics to disrupt European politics. Whether it’s Russian-sponsored

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