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Why Iran Isn’t Blinking Yet

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28.04.2026

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In a way, the impasse between the United States and Iran over the still-closed Strait of Hormuz boils down to storage. 

The Trump administration believes that the two-week-old, semi-porous U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping will soon bring Tehran to its knees by forcing it to shut down oil wells as it runs out of storage space for crude it can no longer ship. That looming production shutdown, the administration believes, threatens Iran with permanent, severe damage to a major part of its economy, and explains why Washington appears content to wait for an Iranian surrender that has yet to materialize in the eight-week war.

In a way, the impasse between the United States and Iran over the still-closed Strait of Hormuz boils down to storage. 

The Trump administration believes that the two-week-old, semi-porous U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping will soon bring Tehran to its knees by forcing it to shut down oil wells as it runs out of storage space for crude it can no longer ship. That looming production shutdown, the administration believes, threatens Iran with permanent, severe damage to a major part of its economy, and explains why Washington appears content to wait for an Iranian surrender that has yet to materialize in the eight-week war.

Iran is aware of the challenge and is scrambling to find places to stash its crude as its oil exports have fallen by three-quarters since the U.S. blockade began. But Tehran has been through this several times before, with severe U.S. sanctions pressure from the Obama and Trump administrations leading to production shutdowns—and neither one led to lasting damage to the country’s oil fields. And Iran is still loading and exporting oil despite the U.S. blockade. 

Meanwhile, U.S. Gulf allies already are in month two of their own production........

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