Now that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un has a Russian dance partner that actually delivers for him, will U.S. President-elect Donald Trump be able to rekindle the bromance between Washington and Pyongyang that flamed out in Hanoi in 2019?

Among the many questions surrounding the future foreign policy of a second Trump term—from the fate of NATO and Ukraine and Gaza to the inevitable global trade wars—this one stands out. Will Trump again send “love letters” to Kim Jong Un in the hopes of sealing a grand bargain that could put U.S.-North Korean relations on a different footing—and if so, what possible bargain is that? Or, if conditions have changed so much in the past five years that fresh summitry is off the table, what happens to the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia?

Now that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un has a Russian dance partner that actually delivers for him, will U.S. President-elect Donald Trump be able to rekindle the bromance between Washington and Pyongyang that flamed out in Hanoi in 2019?

Among the many questions surrounding the future foreign policy of a second Trump term—from the fate of NATO and Ukraine and Gaza to the inevitable global trade wars—this one stands out. Will Trump again send “love letters” to Kim Jong Un in the hopes of sealing a grand bargain that could put U.S.-North Korean relations on a different footing—and if so, what possible bargain is that? Or, if conditions have changed so much in the past five years that fresh summitry is off the table, what happens to the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia?

“The biggest difference on the North Korean side is that Kim has the relationship with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin that he has long wanted with China,” said Victor Cha, the Korea chair at the Center for International and Strategic Studies. “That was not the case before, when Kim put all their eggs in the summit basket and that was a huge failure.”

Kim’s North Korea has also grown in capacity, not just confidence, with new backers, making it even harder for any U.S. administration to offer minimal inducements to coax concessions out of Pyongyang.

“There is so much that has changed in the past five years, we don’t just pick up where we left off. If any Trump administration people think they can just reoffer what they offered at Hanoi, their calculus is wrong,” said Jenny Town, the director of the North Korea program at the Stimson Center. “North Korea has made significant advances in developing weapons of mass destruction, and geopolitical trends are working in their favor.”

What is clear........

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