Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: Thai and Singaporean imports of natural gas face price hikes following the outbreak of war with Iran, a Japanese man is arrested on charges involving a nuclear material-for-guns scheme, and the Philippines investigates its own citizens on suspicion of spying for China.

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: Thai and Singaporean imports of natural gas face price hikes following the outbreak of war with Iran, a Japanese man is arrested on charges involving a nuclear material-for-guns scheme, and the Philippines investigates its own citizens on suspicion of spying for China.

Thailand and Singapore Are Losing the Iran War

For Southeast Asia, the most immediate effects of the spiraling U.S.-Israeli war with Iran are felt in the global energy markets. As Iran responds to attacks with its own strikes on major energy-producing neighbors—thus effectively pausing shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—prices of oil and gas are shooting up.

From the oil shock, no one is safe, and governments across the region are already scrambling to try to cushion the impact.

Only two countries—Myanmar and Cambodia—actually produce more crude oil than they consume, according to the International Energy Agency. And both lack the ability to take full advantage of this because they have either no or extremely limited refining capacity.

When you factor in natural gas, with U.S. natural gas futures up more than 20 percent since the strikes, Thailand and Singapore are particularly exposed. In an irony that they doubtless do not appreciate, they are—on paper—two of the United States’ closest partners in the region: One is a treaty ally and the other a close security partner.

Both countries use lots of imported gas, mainly to generate electricity. Much of it is imported from Middle Eastern suppliers—in particular, Qatar.

In 2024, Singapore generated 92.2 percent of its electricity from natural gas. It has no domestic gas reserves, so it must import everything.

Based on some back-of-the-envelope calculations using World Bank figures, about 14.6 percent of Singapore’s natural gas is shipped from Qatar. Qatar is Singapore’s second-biggest supplier of liquified natural gas (LNG) after Australia.

Thailand generated 68.4 percent of its electricity from gas in 2024. Domestic gas production covered 55.3 percent of Thailand’s needs.

Based on the same rough method used for Singapore, it seems that roughly 7.5 percent of Thailand’s gas comes from sources disrupted by the war: Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates.

That 7.5 percent may not sound like too much. But as many countries, including Thailand, discovered when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, electricity prices are set at the margin. That is, the most expensive method of generation........

© Foreign Policy