“World War III” is not a phrase to be casually tossed around, yet declaring its impending eruption has become a staple of political punditry. The current war in the Middle East is no different. The British media has debated how their country could get sucked into World War III if it allowed U.S. aircraft to use British air bases on their way to bomb Iran. In 2022 and 2023, figures including John Mearsheimer, Tucker Carlson, and Elon Musk warned that helping Ukraine fight Russia would set off a global conflagration. A recent poll conducted by Politico found that a majority of respondents in Britain, Canada, France, and the United States believed that World War III is more likely than not to happen within the next five years.

To understand the chaos in global politics, it is important to distinguish between different types of wars. This is not just semantics or academic exactitude, but a prerequisite for sober policy choices—not to mention keeping our sanity.

“World War III” is not a phrase to be casually tossed around, yet declaring its impending eruption has become a staple of political punditry. The current war in the Middle East is no different. The British media has debated how their country could get sucked into World War III if it allowed U.S. aircraft to use British air bases on their way to bomb Iran. In 2022 and 2023, figures including John Mearsheimer, Tucker Carlson, and Elon Musk warned that helping Ukraine fight Russia would set off a global conflagration. A recent poll conducted by Politico found that a majority of respondents in Britain, Canada, France, and the United States believed that World War III is more likely than not to happen within the next five years.

To understand the chaos in global politics, it is important to distinguish between different types of wars. This is not just semantics or academic exactitude, but a prerequisite for sober policy choices—not to mention keeping our sanity.

While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran are two serious conflicts with devastating consequences for the nations involved, they are both regional wars. That remains true even as Iran lashes out at its neighbors, which may or may not join the fight. A world war has considerably more profound effects on great power politics, stability, economic growth, and the international system compared to regional wars, limited wars, or various forms of........

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