The growing strength of Chinese-Russian alignment—and how to counter it—is one of the major issues occupying Western strategic minds. It is commonly acknowledged that Beijing and Moscow have drawn closer together since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2022, with China’s economic and technological support of crucial importance to Russia’s war efforts.

But there is still much debate over how strong the Sino-Russian relationship really is and what drives it. Mutual mistrust based on the two powers’ difficult history still runs deep, and it is uncertain how comfortable Moscow is with its growing dependency on China. Beijing, in turn, has been put in an awkward position vis-à-vis one of its largest trading partners, the European Union, by Russia’s war. Some Western strategists seem to hope that Sino-Russian disaffection could lead to a split reminiscent of the famous Sino-Soviet fracture in the 1960s and early 1970s.

The growing strength of Chinese-Russian alignment—and how to counter it—is one of the major issues occupying Western strategic minds. It is commonly acknowledged that Beijing and Moscow have drawn closer together since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2022, with China’s economic and technological support of crucial importance to Russia’s war efforts.

But there is still much debate over how strong the Sino-Russian relationship really is and what drives it. Mutual mistrust based on the two powers’ difficult history still runs deep, and it is uncertain how comfortable Moscow is with its growing dependency on China. Beijing, in turn, has been put in an awkward position vis-à-vis one of its largest trading partners, the European Union, by Russia’s war. Some Western strategists seem to hope that Sino-Russian disaffection could lead to a split reminiscent of the famous Sino-Soviet fracture in the 1960s and early 1970s.

It is therefore a useful exercise to assess the strength of the current Beijing-Moscow axis by comparing it to the Cold War’s Sino-Soviet alliance. Oct. 2 marks 75 years since the Soviet Union became the first country to recognize the newly founded People’s Republic of China and established diplomatic relations with the new regime. In December 1949, China’s paramount leader, Mao Zedong, traveled to Moscow for his first state visit abroad. The two-month visit culminated with Mao signing a 30-year friendship treaty with his Soviet counterpart, Joseph Stalin. However, this quasi-alliance only lasted about one decade. In 1961, Beijing officials denounced Soviet communism as the work of “traitors,” and an undeclared Sino-Soviet border war erupted in 1969. Later, in 1971, China switched sides by aligning with the United........

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