Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief.

The highlights this week: Questions remain about U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s China policy, Chinese authorities shut down a spontaneous nighttime cycling movement, and Taiwan seeks to curry favor with the next White House by pitching an arms deal.

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief.

The highlights this week: Questions remain about U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s China policy, Chinese authorities shut down a spontaneous nighttime cycling movement, and Taiwan seeks to curry favor with the next White House by pitching an arms deal.

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As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his return to the White House, it’s clear that a more hard-line China policy is coming—but the shape that it will take and its limits are not yet apparent. There are some big questions and divisions already emerging in the circles around Trump.

The second Trump administration must ask: Can its China policy can be reconciled with its domestic economic needs? Tariffs are the most certain policy, and it’s possible that trade hawk Robert Lighthizer will return as U.S. trade representative. Some Republican advisors aspire to total decoupling from China, which is the largest supplier of goods to the United States and its third-largest buyer.

Trump’s oft-stated preference for tariffs on China set at 60 percent may lead to significant inflation and lead the United States to turn to cheaper manufacturing alternatives in countries such as Indonesia or Vietnam. That might ease the blow, though even so-called friend-shoring would run up against the 10 to 20 percent tariffs Trump says he wants to apply to all countries, including allies.

Sticker shock had painful consequences for Democrats in recent years, and the same may apply for Republicans once in power, especially if Americans simultaneously lose access to low-cost goods through Chinese apps such as Temu and Shein.

Another big question: How much leverage do business holdings in China among Trump allies give Beijing? Trump himself has long-standing interests in the country; key ally and real estate developer Steve Wynn has invested heavily in Macao’s casinos.

However, the most important figure will be the man whom Trump watched the election results with at Mar-a-Lago: Elon Musk, whose success with manufacturing Teslas in China is tied to favorable policies from Beijing. Musk has walked the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) line issues such as Taiwan and Xinjiang and described himself as “kind of pro-China.”

Trump has repeatedly shown that he can be persuaded when it comes to Chinese business interests if spoken to directly. As president, he reversed........

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