When Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni swept to power in 2022, countries across the world watched her victory with interest—and apprehension, in some cases—to determine whether her government would pose a threat to Italian democracy and lead to a populist resurgence in Europe.

Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, which traces its roots to Italian post-fascist movements, won on an anti-immigration, nationalist, and Euroskeptic platform. At her inaugural speech in parliament, Meloni pledged to take bold decisions to free up “the best energies of this nation,” even if that entailed clashing with Italian or international elites. She promised to reform the country’s bureaucracy and simplify its legal system, while ushering in a “Copernican revolution” that would establish a new Italian fiscal compact.

When Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni swept to power in 2022, countries across the world watched her victory with interest—and apprehension, in some cases—to determine whether her government would pose a threat to Italian democracy and lead to a populist resurgence in Europe.

Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, which traces its roots to Italian post-fascist movements, won on an anti-immigration, nationalist, and Euroskeptic platform. At her inaugural speech in parliament, Meloni pledged to take bold decisions to free up “the best energies of this nation,” even if that entailed clashing with Italian or international elites. She promised to reform the country’s bureaucracy and simplify its legal system, while ushering in a “Copernican revolution” that would establish a new Italian fiscal compact.

But more than three years after Meloni took office, these goals haven’t translated into tangible achievements, critics say.

Compared to other far-right, populist leaders such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Argentine President Javier Milei, Meloni chose a less confrontational approach both domestically and internationally, threading a fine line between her nationalist agenda and pragmatic governance. However, the equilibrium she strived to maintain has resulted in economic and social reforms that are far from incisive, defining her leadership more by restraint rather than the renewal she once promised.

So far, Meloni’s government has enjoyed unusual stability by Italian standards; in early September, her administration will become the longest-lived since World War II. Most polls still show that she is Italy’s most popular political leader after President Sergio Mattarella.

“Her government has been prudent,” said Lorenzo Pregliasco, a founder of YouTrend, an opinion polling and political communications firm in Turin. “She avoided promoting radical interventions and, in doing so, she accepted not touching the vested interest of many categories … with the underlying idea that the less you do, the fewer people you disappoint.”

Many analysts say that Meloni’s strength lies in a dual identity rooted in pragmatism alongside nationalistic and Christian values. This has allowed her to convey an image of control domestically—where she commands a solid majority in parliament, in coalition with the centrist party Forza Italia and the nativist League—and internationally, where she has maintained a strong pro-West approach.

Yet the winds seem to be changing. On March 23, Meloni’s government suffered a harsh defeat in a constitutional referendum on a judiciary reform at the center of her legislative........

© Foreign Policy