Escalating tensions between China and Taiwan have forced the Philippines—whose northernmost point is less than 100 miles from Taiwan—to intensify its focus on a potential cross-strait conflict. Until now, Manila has prioritized internal security, particularly with regard to Islamist insurgents on the southern island of Mindanao, as well as Beijing’s growing encroachment into the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea. But a future Taiwan scenario—how the Philippines might react and potentially support its security ally, the United States, if the latter were to intervene—is now beginning to take up more of Manila’s bandwidth.

Significantly, in a departure from past administrations, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has publicly discussed his growing concerns over Taiwan. Last summer, Marcos visited his northern army unit and remarked, “The external threat [from the Taiwan Strait] now has become more pronounced, has become more worrisome. And that is why we have to prepare.” In a February 2023 interview, Marcos said, “It’s very hard to imagine a scenario where the Philippines will not somehow get involved.”

Escalating tensions between China and Taiwan have forced the Philippines—whose northernmost point is less than 100 miles from Taiwan—to intensify its focus on a potential cross-strait conflict. Until now, Manila has prioritized internal security, particularly with regard to Islamist insurgents on the southern island of Mindanao, as well as Beijing’s growing encroachment into the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea. But a future Taiwan scenario—how the Philippines might react and potentially support its security ally, the United States, if the latter were to intervene—is now beginning to take up more of Manila’s bandwidth.

Significantly, in a departure from past administrations, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has publicly discussed his growing concerns over Taiwan. Last summer, Marcos........

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