We certainly do have a sweet tooth for conjecture, conclusions formed on the basis of flimsy or incomplete information. Finding nothing substantial to the contrary, I’m thinking conjecture is unique to humans. We, with our advanced cognitive skills, own it. It’s read, written and spoken daily. Probably not practiced by all of us, but I’d be willing to bet most of us conjecture is just another face of evil and reprehensible. “See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.” If a trio of monkeys can figure it out, why can’t we?

Whether purveyors of conjecture or junk “news” junkies, the credit for this lapse in decorum appears to belong to a common cognitive bias in our personalities we may not even be aware of. A steady diet of conjecture can lead to wrongful conclusions and faulty decisions. No, I don’t see conjecture in lower animals but far less complex motivations for their malicious intent. And, no, I’m not advocating for monkeys but for us to come down out of the trees.

“Conjecture reasoning” is an oxymoron: “conjecture” denoting incomplete evidence, “reasoning” a process of concluding things based on conclusive evidence. I have to admit, the term “conjecture reasoning” sounds somewhat reasonable. But is it? Does coupling the former with the latter legitimize the former? Well, I guess it’s how you want to look at it.

If you think an educated guess (another oxymoron) is better than plain old conjecture, then yes. Otherwise, no. Conjecture reasoning is what some of us use when flipping a coin. If the coin comes up heads three times in a row, we see a pattern. Based on that pattern, we might bet that the coin is going to come up heads a fourth time. But there’s no evidence to back that up. Three heads in a row also doesn’t mean that the chances of tails coming up on the next toss are any greater than they were on the first three tosses. One side of a coin has no advantage over the other. No matter how many times you toss a coin into the air, there’s a 50/50 chance of it coming up one or the other.

Juxtaposing two words does not necessarily change things. Marrying “up” does not dissociate “conjecture” from its synonymic cousins: assumption, speculation and supposition.

And yet, conjecture seems to agree with the palate. We listen to and appreciate conjecture the way we do Beethoven, Bach and Mozart; we read conjecture the way we read Christie, Doyle and Chandler; harmony and counterpoint; murder and mayhem; conjecture is music to our ears.

In the past decade or so, we’ve become cognitively obese at the feet of conjecture. A steady diet of conjecture has given us “emotional indigestion,” stomach discomfort brought on by stress, anxiety and depression. Irritable bowel syndrome.

We thrive (or should I say deteriorate) on conjecture, always willing to believe the worst in people, believe what isn’t necessarily true. Had I been aware of the word early on in life, I would have been better positioned when presenting my parents with a note from my teacher: Conjecture, Mother! Pure conjecture!

Here’s another phrase, “selective reasoning,” a “cognitive process whereby we focus on certain information while ignoring other information.” Without a doubt, such reasoning comes under the heading of a half-truth. I’ve said it before, half-truths are misleading and often meant to evade or misrepresent the truth. “Conjecture,” “conjecture reasoning,” “selective reasoning,” here is your basket of deplorables.

I’ve come to view “conjecture” the way Homer portrayed Scylla, a yelping, grisly beast in “The Odyssey.” A goddess of Greek mythology, Scylla exhibited six heads on six protracted necks, each head displaying three rows of sharp teeth. Imprudent mariners sailing the Strait of Messina did so at their own peril. Unaware of the nearness of Scylla’s lair, sailors were quickly gobbled up, one for each of Scylla’s heads. Scylla was to be avoided. Scylla was the face of Evil and the catalyst for many a dire strait. Scylla could be the face of conjecture.

Donald Melville, Vietnam veteran, engineer and author, contributes topics of interest and welcomes your comments at donaldemelville@gmail.com. Visit Don Melville essays on Facebook.

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