Vietnam is among the global bright spots in economic growth and manufacturing expansion, according to the latest studies, including from the U.S.’s Harvard University and U.S. economic analysis firm S&P Global, the VnExpress news website reported.

It is expected to lead the world in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the coming decade, according to Harvard University research program Growth Lab.

“Vietnam and China remain more complex than expected for their income level, and so they will continue to lead global growth in the coming decade,” the VnExpress reported quoting Ricardo Hausmann, director of the Growth Lab and a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, as saying.

“Countries that have diversified their production into more complex sectors are those that will lead global growth.” 

According to the Vietnam Briefing website, Vietnam’s GDP grew by 8.02 percent in 2025, despite the negative effects of a tough global market and multiple natural disasters. It is set to grow 10 percent in 2026.

The GDP in 2025 is projected to be nearly VND12.85 quadrillion (about US$514 billion), reflecting an increase of roughly $38 billion from 2024. Vietnam’s GDP per capita has risen to VND125.5 million (about $5,026), up $326 from 2024.

Positive growth across all three main sectors contributed to Vietnam’s robust GDP growth in 2025. The industry and construction sector is the fastest growing, with an 8.95 percent rise, while the service sector remains the main driver of overall growth, accounting for 51.08 percent.

Vietnam’s total trade value exceeded $930 billion in 2025 with exports of $470 billion and imports of $460 billion, marking an 18.2 percent year-on-year increase. 

One of the growth drivers is manufacturing. Vietnam’s manufacturing sector recorded its strongest growth in four months in February, supported by faster production and a rise in new orders, according to S&P Global.

The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to 54.3 in February from 52.5 in January, extending the sequence of improving business conditions to eight consecutive months. A figure above 50 signals expansion.

Factory output rose sharply during the month, with the pace of growth reaching a 19-month high. Firms said they are ramping up production in advance of client deliveries and responding to firmer customer demand.

New orders increased for a sixth straight month, expanding at the quickest rate since October 2025. The gain came even as new export business was unchanged from January, with some companies citing volatility in overseas markets.

Some firms reported hiring additional staff on a temporary basis. Purchases of inputs rose at the second fastest rate in 18 months behind only December 2025.

On a GDP per capita basis, Vietnam surpassed the Philippines in 2018 to rank fifth among ASEAN member countries after Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia, it said.

“The high growth can be attributed to the country’s continuous reform efforts over the past decades.”

In recent decades the country has posted strong growth compared with other major ASEAN members, underpinned by structural reforms and robust foreign direct investment (FDI), it said.

FDI inflows into Vietnam remained resilient in 2025, with newly registered capital exceeding $38.4 billion, up 0.5 percent year on year, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO). 

Disbursed FDI was estimated at $27.6 billion, a 9 percent increase from 2024 and the highest level in the past five years, underscoring sustained investor confidence despite global uncertainties.

Since 2019, electronics and machinery have replaced textiles as the leading export category, as global technology companies expanded their operations in the country.

The transition has deepened Vietnam’s integration into global value chains and supported continued trade surpluses since 2018, bolstering macroeconomic stability alongside relatively low fiscal deficits and government debt levels.

Vietnam’s capital markets have expanded swiftly in line with economic growth.

The market capitalisation of the FTSE Frontier Vietnam Index increased from $11 billion in 2015 to $59 billion in 2025, outperforming both frontier and emerging market benchmarks.

Although economic growth has been driven by manufacturing, the stock market remains heavily weighted toward domestically focused sectors.

Real estate and financials account for more than 60 percent of total market capitalisation, reflecting structural trends including urbanisation, industrial development, rising incomes, and credit expansion.

Vietnam is “the standout high-tech engine,” with machinery and electronics dominating exports and driving a 4.2 percent compound annual growth rate in total export growth between 2014 and 2024, itadded.

Vietnam is also posting strong numbers in tourism. Last year of tourism has grown up by 20.4 percent. It received 21.2 million foreign visitors in 2025 and targets 25 million this year.

Vietnam’s Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính has told ministries and agencies to reinvigorate traditional growth drivers of investment, exports and consumption while accelerating new engines of expansion, including green and digital transformation, labour restructuring, the digital economy, green and circular economic models, innovation, science and technology, the Vietnam News newspaper reported.

The move is aimed at firmly maintaining macroeconomic stability, keeping inflation under control, safeguarding major economic balances, and driving growth above 10 percent in the period ahead. 

Calling for a decisive refresh of traditional growth drivers and stronger promotion of new ones, he stressed the need to accelerate the allocation and disbursement of public investment capital from the outset of the year, striving to disburse 100 percent of the capital in 2026.

© Eurasia Review