Global trade is on course to exceed US$35 trillion in 2025 for the first time, according to the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD)’s final Global Trade Update of the year. The new data confirm that trade continued expanding through the second half of 2025, even as geopolitical tensions, higher costs and uneven global demand slowed momentum. The global trade was surged by 7 percent from 2024. 

The United States remained as the world’s biggest trading country with a total trade of $7.7 trillion in 2025. It suffered a trade deficit of $0.9 trillion.

According to The New York Times newspaper, the U.S. total trade deficit, including trade in both goods and services, shrank slightly last year, as growth in exports narrowly outpaced growth in imports. But that was entirely the result of an expanding trade surplus in services. The trade deficit in physical goods, which has been President Donald Trump’s focus as he has sought to use tariffs to restore the U.S. manufacturing sector, actually grew in 2025.

Overall the U.S. imports of goods and services increased 4.7 percent, to $4.3 trillion, in 2025, while exports rose 6.2 percent, to $3.4 trillion. The trade deficit — the amount by which imports exceed exports — was $901 billion, down from $903 billion in 2024.

Among individual economies, China and the Republic of Korea stood out in East Asia, while Brazil and South Africa were key drivers in South America and Africa. India and China also posted some of the strongest growth in services exports, underscoring the growing weight of emerging economies in global trade.

With a total trade of exceeding $6.36 trillion, China was the second largest trading country in the world.

According to the China Briefing website, against a backdrop of geopolitical fragmentation, slowing global demand, and persistent trade protectionism, China’s foreign trade performance in 2025 underscored the adaptability of the world’s secondlargest economy. Total imports and exports reached a record $6.36 trillion, marking a 3.8 percent yearonyear increase and affirming China’s continued centrality to global trade flows. Export growth remained the primary driver, rising 6.1 percent to $3.77 trillion, while imports showed tentative recovery, edging up 0.5 percent to $2.59 trillion.

With a record $1.18 trillion surplus, China’s exports outpaced relatively flat imports. While the U.S. remained China’s largest trading partner, trade momentum increasingly tilted toward Southeast Asia. China’s trade engine continues to expand, but the geography of that growth is shifting.

According to the Visual Capitalist website, at $560 billion in total trade, the U.S. accounted for 8.8 percent of China’s global trade in 2025. However, bilateral trade declined 18.7 percent year over year amid escalating tariff tensions.

China’s second biggest trading partner was Hong Kong, whose trade was $367 billion, in 2025. South Korea ($331 billion) and Japan ($322 billion) were at third and fourth positions. China’s fifth biggest trading partner was Taiwan, whose trade with China was $314 billion in 2025.

From Southeast Asia, with a trade of $296 billion trade with China in 2025, Vietnam was the sixth biggest trading partner of China.

From Europe, Russia ($228 billion) and Germany ($211 billion) were remained as seventh and eighth biggest trading partners of China in 2025. Australia was the ninth biggest trading partner of China with a trade of $207 billion.

Malaysia was the tenth biggest trading partner of China with a trade of $192 billion.

Meanwhile, Vietnam posted a 13.7 percent increase in bilateral trade, part of a broader surge in trade across the ASEAN region. Chinese exports to Africa also rose 25.8 percent year over year.

Much of that decline reflects weakness in autos. Since 2022, German car exports to China have fallen 66 percent, raising pressure on manufacturers as domestic Chinese brands gain share.

India ranked 12th overall with $156 billion in trade, posting double-digit growth alongside Indonesia ($167 billion), Vietnam ($296 billion), and Thailand ($153 billion).

But there was a difference of $13 billion in the trade between China and Indonesia. According to the Indonesia’s Trade Ministry and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia’s trade with China was only $154.57 billion in 2025. Based on Indonesian data, Indonesia suffered a trade deficit of $20.49 billion with China in 2025.

According to the UNCTAD, global trade enters 2026 under mounting pressure from slower growth, geopolitical fragmentation, accelerating digital and green transitions and tighter national regulations. Together, these forces are reshaping trade flows, investment decisions and global value chains, with the greatest risks and opportunities concentrated in developing economies.

Global growth is projected to remain subdued at about 2.6 percent in 2026, while growth in developing economies excluding China slows to around 4.2 percent. Major trading partners, including the United States, China and Europe, are also losing momentum, weakening demand and tightening financial conditions.

For developing countries, slower growth limits investment in infrastructure and industrialisation. Stronger regional trade and diversification will be critical to build resilience.

© Eurasia Review