Japan’s decision to modernise its defence system in connection with developments in Taiwan means a fundamental change for the security situation in East Asia. Japan has reacted to the Chinese activities in the Taiwan Strait and in the Indo-Pacific region. While Japan has reason to worry about Chinese activities, its decision to strengthen its defence capabilities may lead to increased tensions in the region. The paper finds Japan’s deterrence strategy as a way to compensate for the power imbalance concerning Taiwan generally to be appropriate, but also full of challenges and risks. If Japan’s decision should contribute to more instability in the region, that would be detrimental to all parties involved. To prevent such a development, it is important that there is more dialogue between the parties and that more confidence-building measures are introduced.

Japan has a long history of concern for national security issues based on geography and history. Recently, the government made an official statement to place ground-based missile defence systems on Yonaguni Island in Okinawa Prefecture. The island has a population of less than 1,700 residents and is some 110km from Taiwan. The Japanese Self-Defence Forces already have personnel stationed in Okinawa, which has been part of the Japanese acceptance of U.S. forces stationed in Japan. Japan is fully engaged with the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy and its own security strategy of deterrence by denial, which is based on preventing attacks from occurring as opposed to having retaliatory capability from weaponry. China recently called Japan’s decision to enhance its missile defence capabilities “arrogant and highly provocative”, saying that Japan is trying to “encircle” China. Japan has disagreed with China’s........

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