Japan’s decision to modernise its defence system in connection with developments in Taiwan means a fundamental change for the security situation in East Asia. Japan has reacted to the Chinese activities in the Taiwan Strait and in the Indo-Pacific region. While Japan has reason to worry about Chinese activities, its decision to strengthen its defence capabilities may lead to increased tensions in the region. The paper finds Japan’s deterrence strategy as a way to compensate for the power imbalance concerning Taiwan generally to be appropriate, but also full of challenges and risks. If Japan’s decision should contribute to more instability in the region, that would be detrimental to all parties involved. To prevent such a development, it is important that there is more dialogue between the parties and that more confidence-building measures are introduced.

Japan has a long history of concern for national security issues based on geography and history. Recently, the government made an official statement to place ground-based missile defence systems on Yonaguni Island in Okinawa Prefecture. The island has a population of less than 1,700 residents and is some 110km from Taiwan. The Japanese Self-Defence Forces already have personnel stationed in Okinawa, which has been part of the Japanese acceptance of U.S. forces stationed in Japan. Japan is fully engaged with the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy and its own security strategy of deterrence by denial, which is based on preventing attacks from occurring as opposed to having retaliatory capability from weaponry. China recently called Japan’s decision to enhance its missile defence capabilities “arrogant and highly provocative”, saying that Japan is trying to “encircle” China. Japan has disagreed with China’s statements regarding Japan’s missile defence system, saying they are not valid. China has been involved in an increased number of military activities in the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. China has issued statements of concern and complaint in relation to Japan’s decision to enhance its missile defence capabilities. Japan and China already have very poor relations, and the recent statement by Japan regarding missile defence systems will not do anything to change that.

It appears that the China-Japan rivalry for political, strategic and economic influence is having far-reaching consequences and destabilising the Asia-Pacific region. The expansion of China’s sea patrol activities around Taiwan will only add to the destabilisation of the region, in particular relating to periodic tensions in the East China Sea around the Senkaku/Diaoyu island disputes. South Korea too must re-examine its defence strategy in light of the current tensions in the South Korea-China and South Korea-US relations. These too are impacting the South Korea-Japan and South Korea-US relations. The China-Japan rivalry is also likely to have destabilising effects in the wider region of Southeast Asia. ASEAN members have generally sought to avoid being drawn into contentious regional security issues. However, should the China-Japan rivalry escalate further and should the ASEAN countries be forced to take sides in this rivalry, the destabilisation of the wider Asia-Pacific region will be even further exacerbated, and the existing dialogue and crisis management mechanisms will be undermined. It is also the case that China’s deterrence of other claimant nations in the South China Sea has weakened. The implications of these developments are far-reaching, and it is only a matter of time before the economic consequences of the destabilisation of the Asia-Pacific region fully materialise.

Japan and China have four obstacles to overcome to strengthen their relations as follows:  the first is the presence of Self-Defence Forces ships and aircraft in the East China Sea, which could be a source of misunderstanding. The second is Japan’s heavy dependence on U.S. security, which leaves Japan’s security in the hands of the caprice of U.S. politicians. The third is preventing the region from being divided into the rival camps of Japan, the U.S. and their allies and China and its allies. The fourth is that Japan and China need to be mindful of the economic risks of using the economy for political ends and preventing the economy from being disrupted.

Japan’s role in global security should be discussed. Japan’s basic defence policy has not changed in the last 63 years. Not many Japanese have a clear idea of Japan’s role in peace and security in the world. It is now time to start a serious discussion about Japan’s role and how the country will assume the responsibilities of armed forces more directly is essential.

To establish effective maritime governance in the East China Sea, the approach needs to be based on a combination of deterrence and diplomacy. The first stage could involve the establishment of the emergency communication channel for military personnel and the military dialogue between the Chinese and Japanese military offices in order to prevent misunderstanding between the two countries. Japan and China can also discuss issues relating to the confidence-building measures and maritime security. Information exchange between the militaries and joint military exercises to be conducted between the two countries with a view to reducing the level of misunderstandings between the navies. Greater cooperation on non-traditional security issues such as climate change, disaster relief and health as a measure to ease Japan-China tensions. More soft power exchanges, which have seen success in student exchange programs and tourism, to promote greater mutual understanding. Third-party mediation could be conducted by ASEAN members during future bilateral talks between Japan and China.

To conclude, Japan and China need to strengthen economic ties to mitigate the adverse impact of the increasing number of tensions in the region. Regional economic cooperation between Japan and China will help to mitigate the adverse impact of the competition unfolding in the region. Scholars, civil society organisations, and non-governmental organisations should be involved in the informal talks on the Sino-Japanese dialogue, in order to discuss possible areas of mutual interest and accommodation. The implications of the Japanese move in East and Southeast Asia, particularly for Taiwan, are not yet clear.

To prevent an escalation of the crisis and thereby the outbreak of war, it is necessary to find the right balance between being ready to repel the attack and entering into negotiations with China. Japan, China and other countries in the region need to make a joint effort in the field of deterrence and dialogue in order to guarantee a lasting maintenance of peace and stability in the region, which remains a security-threatening environment.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.

Smith, S. A., & Baylor, C. (2026, February 6). Japan’s 2026 election: National security. Council on Foreign Relations. 

Mahadzir, D. (2026, January 1). Japan’s security faces ‘unprecedented challenges,’ say defence leaders. USNI News

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