The South China Sea, one of the world’s most contested maritime spaces, continues to draw attention from regional and global actors as they seek to protect and assert their territorial claims and other interests in the region. The complex of historical, security, and economic claims to parts of the South China Sea is a supreme test for ASEAN of its ability to come together to protect the maritime rights and interests of its individual member states while at the same time seeking to promote economic and other cooperation with China and other external parties. The future of South China Sea diplomacy, therefore, will depend entirely on whether ASEAN can move beyond the cautious words of recent years and translate its collective aspirations into a coordinated and operationally robust program of action that enables it to assert and protect its strategic autonomy in the face of an increasingly assertive China.

ASEAN member states have historically struggled to speak as one body. The diverse and often intractable national interests of the individual member states mean that most decisions taken within ASEAN are reached with caution, much to the chagrin of the outside world. Moreover, there are individual member states within ASEAN that are more aligned with China’s goals within the region, such as Cambodia, and in recent times, Vietnam and the Philippines have been actively contesting China’s claims to resources within the sea, while at the same time, trying to maintain and grow their trade with China. It is in this regard that the Cebu Summit of 2026 came to play a historical significance, where for the very first time, ASEAN member states formally recognised and made the recognition operational that fragmented or........

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