Col. Douglas Macgregor, advisor to the Secretary of Defence in the first Trump Administration, has said that the Iran-US war is likely to end with the US losing its prestige and leaving the Middle East. 

Col. Douglas Macgregor, who was advisor to the US Secretary of Defence in the first Trump Administration, said in a video interview to the Norwegian political scientist, Glenn Diesen, that the Iran war is going badly for the US, and if it is not  stopped quickly, the US will end up losing its prestige and quitting West Asia.  

A former US army combatant, Col. Macgregor said that the US expected Iran to capitulate quickly after its supremo Ayatollah Khamanei was killed by the Israelis. But to its dismay, Iran did not. On the contrary, it is firing missiles and sending drones in huge numbers to wreak vengeance on at least 27 US bases spread across West Asia including Israel.

He pointed out that the US defence system was deluded by decoy drones and the Israeli “Iron umbrella” had proved to be porous. He feared that the US might soon run out of missiles, having only 40,000 of them as against the Iranian stockpile of 450,000. 

The US would find it difficult to neutralise Iranian missile batteries because they are thinly spread out in Iran, a country as large as Europe. Also, it would be harder to hit them because they are mobile. Iran, on the other hand,  has struck bases which are static. 

Commenting on the decapitation of the Iranian leadership by killing Ayatollah Khamanei, Macgregor said that it was only a tactical success that gave the US and Israel an initial advantage. But he cautioned that wars are not won by tactics but by strategies. “Battles are won by tactics, but wars are won by strategy” he pointed out. He said that the US and Israel do not have a strategy to fight a country like Iran. 

In his view, American and European strategists wrongly imagine that the people of Asia, whether of the West, South or East Asia, think like Westerners. But they thing very differently, because of their unique and history and culture. They are not just nation States but civilizations that have lasted for several millennia – Iran (as Persia) for 2500 years and China and India for 5000 years. With such a deep legacy they will not give in easily because they see the Western aggressor as a civilizational threat, Macgregor said.

“While the Americans and Israelis are fighting to win, the Iranians are fighting for their very survival,” he added. Such an attitude is very much evident in Iran now. Support for Khamanei has only grown after he was killed. The US expert pointed out that the US has made him a martyr, a status which he sought and obtained,  knowing his people’s mind. 

The US expert also said that it was wrong on the part of the US to  think that Iran promoted Islamic terrorism. He pointed out that if a State had to named in this connection it should be Pakistan which he described as an “incubator” Islamic terrorism.      

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has admitted that Trump was surprised at Iran’s resilience, He had also said that the US was forced into attacking Iran after being told Israel planned to launch strikes first. Israel had planned to strike Iran without telling its ally, the US. There was nothing surprising about this because in Macgregor’s view, it is Israel which decides for the US and not the other way round. 

Trump has admitted that the Iran campaign has exceeded the time envisaged but maintained that it would last no longer than some  weeks. The US has a “virtually unlimited” ammo stockpiles, and that the US can wage war ‘forever’ he said in a Truth Special post. The President also said that the weapons stored in other nations could be reallocated for using in Iran.

However, Iran is prepared for a long drawn-out war, a fight to the finish as it were, Macgregor said.  Iranian officials said they have been preparing for a long war by stockpiling long-range weapons in underground depots.

Meanwhile, Trump is faced with the grim prospect of a global economic collapse. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and effectively the Suez Canal also, has hit oil supplies to countries east of Suez. Oil prices will rise sky high, burdening the poor in South and East Asia. According Macgregor, India alone needs 2.6 million barrels of oil each day. India is doubly affected because 4.6 million Indians work in the Middle East and remit billions of dollars to their homeland.

Modi is facing headwinds at home too. The latest Reuters survey said that 75% of Americans do not support the Iran war. In June 2025, 60% of American were against a war with Iran according to the Economist/YouGov survey. Congressman Ro Khanna had submitted a motion in the House of Representatives saying that Trump could not go to war without Congressional sanction. 

If Trump emerges from the war bruised and battered, he might lose the support even of the members of his Make America Great Again (MAGA) group because they had been promised that he would stop wars and spend America’s resources for the welfare and development of its people.

Asked by Glenn Diesen if Russia or China will intervene to aid Iran or stop the war, Macgregor said that they would, if it escalates further. And if Israel uses a nuclear weapon, they could even join the war on Iran’s side. 

Macgregor said that mediation should be attempted and suggested that India could be the ideal mediator, because of its history of friendship with Iran even as it is getting close to the US and cultivating Israel. At any rate, it would be in their interest of every country to being an end to the hostilities and restore normal commerce. 

However, even if the war ends, America’s prestige in West Asia will have suffered a grievous blow, Macgregor said and added that in his view, West Asia will not be the same again. “There will be new rules operating there, which will not be written by the US or the West but by Asians.”

This will be a shock to Israel and its backers in the US as they have been imagining that there will be a Greater Israel stretching from the Nile in Egypt to the Euphrates in Iraq.

A version of this article appeared in The Daily Times of Bangladesh

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