The unexpected Iranian resistance to the US-Israeli invasion and a strong anti-war sentiment in the US, have put cocky Trump in a bind. Benjamin Netanyahu has to prove that only his hardline will save Israel from extinction.  

US President Donald Trump is in a bind. He is under compulsion to defeat Iran to restore US pride and save his personal reputation as a strongman. The unexpected Iranian resistance to the US-Israeli invasion and a strong anti-war sentiment in the US, have combined to put Trump in a cleft stick. 

Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is in a bind too. Against great and unexpected odds, he must prove that only his hardline against Iran will save Israel from extinction.  

The missile war he and his ally, Israel, unleashed against Iran has failed to crack the regime of the Ayatollahs or break the will of the Iranian people to fight back. Trump also lacks the support of people in his home turf, the US, where 75% are against the war, according to the latest poll.

American Congressmen estimate that the first six days of the war had cost US taxpayers at least US$ 8 billion, driven largely by expensive munitions. Daily military operations in and around Iran were costing taxpayers an estimated US$ 59.39 million per day.

That US$ 59.39 million a day could instead cover the daily costs of Medicaid for more than four million Americans, or SNAP (food stamps) for more than 9.5 million Americans, it is pointed out.

More than 250 US organisations have signed a joint letter calling on Congress to cease funding for the war, arguing that billions of dollars are being diverted from urgent domestic needs, reports Al Jazeera.

The signatories warned that further financial support for the military would only exacerbate the conflict. “More money for the Pentagon will serve to extend and escalate an illegal, unpopular, and devastating war – as well as pave the way for still more Pentagon funding requests,” said Robert Weissman, the co-president of Public Citizen.

The signatories of the letter represent a broad range of interests, including the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), Oxfam America, National Nurses United, the Council on American-Islamic Relations, Coalition of Concerned Scientists, J Street, Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, Indivisible, and the Jewish Voice for Peace.

The US has a national debt of US$ 38 trillion. And the Rand Corporation says that to support this debt, the US government spends US$ 1.1 trillion per year on interest payments. This is more than what the US spends on its defence each year, or on the combined annual non-defence discretionary spending, including education, law enforcement, and scientific research.

“Nearly one-fourth of those interest payments flow to foreign countries, including China, to build their economies rather than our own,” Rand added.  

Netanyahu Faces Internal Crisis

Meanwhile in Israel, Netanyahu is facing legal charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, in cases involving the receiving of illicit gifts and trading political favours for positive media coverage.

President Isaac Herzog has rejected calls for clemency from Trump, saying that Israel is a sovereign State whose internal affairs will not be decided by Washington.

Compulsion to Win the War   

Nonetheless, Trump and Netanyahu have no option but to defeat Iran. Having threatened Canada and Greenland with a takeover and having taken over Venezuela in one night, Trump cannot allow a Third World country like Iran to humiliate him. Having come to power with a pledge to Make America Great Again (MAGA) he cannot allow Iran to slip out of American hands as Vietnam and Afghanistan did under some former Presidents.      

Netanyahu under a criminal investigation has to prove that only his strong arm methods can save Israel from Iran’s bid to crush it.  

Trump Plans Crippling Attacks

Having failed to bring Iran to its knees in the first two weeks since  February 28, Trump has now mounted a ferocious air war targeting Iran’s main oil storage facility.  

He has denied going after the 400 kg of enriched uranium, which involves a land invasion of Iran. “Right now, we’re focused on knocking the hell out of their missiles and their drones,” he said. However, his administration has dispatched a US Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) of roughly 2,200 Marines to the Middle East on three Navy ships. The 31st MEU also includes squadrons of F-35 fighter jets and MV-22 Osprey aircraft.

But for the land war in the rugged mountainous Iranian terrain, the US cannot get ground troops from any of its European or West Asian allies, barring Israel. And his popularity back in the US will be further dented if thousands of American body bags arrive. The American mind cannot take American casualties.

Russia and China Help Iran

Meanwhile, Iran is getting tangible support from Russia and China. The Washington Post reported last week that Russia was providing Iran with targeting information that included locations of US warships and aircraft in the Middle East. China too is helping with satellite imagery with its highly sophisticated tracking technology.  

Changing Stance on Regime Change -Sign of Weakness

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar have signalled their inability to topple the Iranian regime of the Ayatollahs. Indicating the lack of a well-thought out strategy, the US-Israeli camp had been shifting its goal posts in quick succession, indicating strategic confusion and weakness.

The initial goal of the US-Israel line-up was to crush Iran’s nuclear bomb ambitions. But when this was not achieved, the goal was changed to toppling the Ayatollahs’ regime by military force. But within two weeks of the military campaign, it was clear that it was unachievable. So, the goal post was shifted to motivating the Iranian people to overthrow the Ayatollahs themselves.

On his part, Trump initiated a call to Russian President Vladimir, seeking cooperation to end the war. He is to go to Beijing shortly to persuade Xi Jinping not to support Iran. Trump now realises that he cannot subdue Iran without international support. 

Israel Says Can’t Force Regime Change  

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar confessed to The Times of Israel on Wednesday that “ultimately, we cannot topple the regime; only the Iranian people can. But at the same time, we must say that without external assistance, they have no chance of toppling the regime. Regime change may be a consequence of the operation. It does not necessarily have to be part of the military campaign itself.” 

Sa’ar claimed success in terms of “a dramatic weakening of the Iranian regime’s mechanisms of repression.” He said Israel is striking the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ bases, headquarters, and command-and-control sites.

“By the end of the campaign, they will be sufficiently weakened, and then perhaps it will be possible for the Iranian people to carry out a  change of regime,” Sa’ar said

Netanyahu said that he did not know if the Iranians would oust their regime. Sounding helpless, he told the media, “You can lead someone to water, you cannot make him drink. But we will create optimal conditions to do this, including airstrikes as we did yesterday, as we are doing these days, to try to give the Iranian people the space needed to take to the streets. I cannot say for certain that the Iranian people will bring down the regime. We are all hoping for the result of this regime falling. Ultimately, a regime is ousted from within.”

However, Netanyahu drew comfort from the fact that Ayatollah Khamenei’s successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, had not been able to “‘show his face in public.”

Asked whether Israel would go after Khamenei’s son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, Netanyahu replied: “I wouldn’t take out a life insurance policy on any of the leaders of the terror organisations.”

Despite the rhetoric of Netanyahu and Sa’ar,  it was reported that Israeli government ministers, following a security briefing, believed the fall of Iran’s regime could take up to a year.

Sa’ar himself said: “Usually such things as the fall of a regime happen after the military campaign, not when there’s a war.”

Iran’s Tough Conditions for Ending War

Even as Trump and Netanyahu were showing signs of weakness, the Iranians have been steadfast in not surrendering to the foreign bullies.

The new regime led by Mojtaba Khamenei has declared its resolve not to end the war on US-Israeli terms.  It has stated its conditions, which are: (a) immediate cessation of hostilities, (b) the closure of US bases in Iran’s neighbourhood, (c) the grant of reparations for the damages wrought, and (d) cast-iron assurances about Iran’s security.

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