On 27 January 2026, the European Union (EU) and India concluded a free trade agreement (FTA), eliminating or reducing tariffs on 96.6% of EU goods and 99.5% of Indian goods, and creating the world’s largest free trade zone. The economic implications of the deal – hailed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as the ‘mother of all deals’ – have been subjected to extensive analysis, and its potential impacts on the economy of Bangladesh have been discussed widely. Yet, the geopolitical ramifications of the deal, particularly in the South Asian context, have not yet been explored much. However, the deal presents the addition of a significant element to the geopolitics of South Asia.

After the decolonization of South Asia in the 1940s, the geopolitics of the region has been marked by three recurring trends: the persistent efforts of India to establish itself as a regional leader or hegemon in the region and as an independent power at the global level, the exertions of other South Asian states, such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, to preserve a delicate balance vis-à-vis India, and the endeavours of external powers, such as the United States (US), China, and Russia, to expand their influence over the region. India has managed to raise its profile as an emerging power owing to its economic growth and multi-vector diplomacy, illustrated by its strategic partnerships with the US and Russia and working relationship with China. However, by mid-2020s, India’s delicate balancing at the global level and aspirant leadership at the regional level have come under complex challenges.

India’s efforts to maintain cooperative relations with both Western and non-Western powers have come under severe strains due to the Donald Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on Indian products, and resulted in the reduction of Indian purchase of........

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