A Nature study projects the 2026 El Niño could rank among the strongest in about 150 years, elevating risks of rainfall disruptions, agricultural losses, and pressure on global food markets—particularly in Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and Australia.

Indonesia is pursuing an anticipatory strategy rather than waiting for confirmed impacts, deploying 56,000 irrigation pumps, coordinating water allocation through Rembug Cai, adjusting planting calendars, promoting drought-tolerant crops, and expanding mechanization to protect production capacity.

The policy frames food security as a core element of national strategic autonomy, integrating climate science, market signals, and domestic assessments to build resilience before projected risks escalate into a supply crisis.

Climate change has evolved from an environmental concern into a strategic policy challenge. Extreme weather events are increasingly affecting food production, commodity trade, and economic stability across the world. In this environment, the central challenge for governments is no longer simply responding to disasters after they occur, but determining when projected risks should begin to shape public policy.

This debate has regained prominence following a study published in Nature, which projects that the 2026 El Niño could become one of the strongest recorded in roughly the past 150 years. Based on historical reconstructions and climate modeling, the researchers estimate a significantly higher probability of rainfall disruptions across multiple regions, with potentially serious consequences for agricultural production and water availability. While the projection does not guarantee a crisis, it signals that risks to the global food system are rising.

Similar concerns have also emerged from the perspective of food economics. Anatoly Tikhonov, Director of the Center for International Agribusiness and Food Security at Russia’s Presidential Academy (RANEPA), argues that the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and Australia are among the regions most vulnerable should the projected climate scenario materialize. Disruptions to agricultural output across these areas could constrain commodity supplies and intensify pressures on international food markets. In this sense, El Niño should no longer be viewed merely as a climatological phenomenon, but as a strategic variable shaping global food security.

For Indonesia, however, the central question is not whether........

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