The June jobs report gave a decent picture on jobs growth, even if there were somewhat fewer jobs than most analysts had predicted. At 57,000, the economy is generating enough jobs to keep pace with the growth of the labor force. However, there were other aspects to the report that were somewhat concerning, most notably the weak wage growth. Here are my big five takeaways from the report.

Wage growth is slowing and not keeping pace with inflation;

There is virtually no job growth outside of the health care and social assistance sectors;

Women are getting most of the new jobs;

Prime age (ages 25-54) employment-to-population ratios seems to have fallen a lot;

There is zero evidence of an AI-driven productivity boom.

I’ll take these in turn.

Wage Growth Has Slowed Substantially from Its 2023-24 Pace

The average hourly wage increased 3.5% over the year from June 2025 to June 2026. This compares to a rate of over 4.0% in 2023 and 2024. This sort of slowing is striking given that the unemployment rate remains quite low by historical standards.

It’s also striking to see that wage growth has not accelerated at all in the wake of the recent jump in inflation. That is good news from the standpoint of those worried about a 1970s-type wage-price spiral, but it is bad news for those concerned that workers’ pay is not keeping pace with prices. With year-over-year inflation over 4.0% in the most recent data, wages are clearly falling behind. The sharp drop in gas prices over the last month will help, but even incorporating this decline, workers are at best just treading water.

One of the good stories of the Biden years was that the lowest-paid........

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