Saudi-Led Effort to Shape Sudan’s Transition: The article argues that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is using financial incentives and hosted talks to draw Sudanese civilian leaders into endorsing an army-led framework, aiming for a cooperative, security-first regime dependent on Gulf support rather than genuine civilian rule.

Egypt and Regional Autocratic Preferences: Cairo, closely aligned with Riyadh, prioritizes a strongman or military-dominated order in Khartoum to safeguard security and Nile-related interests, viewing an independent civilian government as a potential source of uncertainty and reduced external control.

Civilian Revolution Undermined: Sudanese civilians and political actors are being courted mainly for legitimacy rather than real power-sharing; as long as key external patrons treat democratic governance as a risk, the 2019 revolution’s goals of civilian authority remain blocked, leaving the population as pawns in a regional power contest.

Sudan’s brave revolutionaries were promised a new dawn in 2019. Instead, they find themselves trapped in a familiar nightmare: a military establishment clinging to power, foreign patrons pulling strings, and a civilian political class being courted not to govern, but to legitimise a pre‑determined outcome. It is hard to escape the conclusion that Sudan is unlikely ever to be ruled by a genuinely democratic, civilian authority – not so long as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and their Islamist fellow‑travellers see an elected Sudanese government as a threat rather than a partner.

At the heart of this story lies Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince who has centralised foreign‑policy decision‑making in Riyadh to an extraordinary degree. The kingdom’s diplomacy toward Sudan is often presented as a responsible........

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