By Yossi Mekelberg

Iran and the US are on the brink of a direct confrontation, and considering the American military buildup in the Gulf and the wider region, this could result in a much broader round of hostilities, ending in a regional escalation and possibly regime change. It may make the US military intervention in Iran last June in support of Israel appear a mere prelude to something much bigger.  Back then, the US carried out short and precise airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites. The message to Tehran appears uncompromising: Accept Washington’s negotiation conditions or face severe military consequences. The message might have been more effective when huge crowds of anti-regime protesters took to the streets across Iran early last month.

Washington’s approach presupposes, and dangerously so, that there is enough pragmatism among the Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, not to test Washington’s resolve by rejecting the Trump administration’s demands. So far, the Iranian leadership’s response to this could be seen as either contradictory or complementary. While Khamenei warned that any US attack on his regime would ignite a “regional war,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said Iran is ready to negotiate with the US after requests from “friendly governments in the region” to respond to a proposal for talks. Furthermore, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told the media that he was “confident that we can achieve a deal” with the US on Tehran’s nuclear program.

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