HBM supercycle continues with massive supply shortages: Demand from AI data centers far exceeds supply, driving strong pricing power and record profits for both SK Hynix and Micron through at least 2028–2030.

SK Hynix leads in HBM market share and Nvidia partnership: It holds ~58% of the HBM market and benefits from a close relationship with Nvidia, but trades at a lower valuation multiple (~5.8x forward earnings) due to currency risk and geopolitical exposure as a Korean company.

Micron offers U.S. geopolitical advantage and strong earnings growth: As the main American memory maker, it benefits from domestic manufacturing investments (CHIPS Act) and a valuation premium (~7x), though it trails in HBM share.

SK Hynix‘s Adrs (SKHY) debut on the Nasdaq last Friday, July 10, at a valuation of $26.5 billion – the largest IPO in the United States by a foreign company and the second-largest IPO in history after SpaceX– raised an obvious question: with AI investments breaking records and HBM’s supercycle in full swing, who captures more upside potential, either the Korean leader in market share or its fierce US competitor Micron?

The HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) supercycle is a historic boom in the memory chip industry. Powered by AI, demand for these ultra-fast, high-capacity chips far outstrips supply.

Traditionally, the chip industry rises and falls in price every few years based on supply and demand. However, HBM has created an unprecedented cycle. With inexhaustible demand as the tech giants (Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon) need billions of these chips for their data centers. The supply shortage since creating HBM memory is complex. And so, manufacturers cannot cope with the orders. This lack of chips gives manufacturers great power to raise selling prices. 

This boom is transforming the global technology industry: HBM’s market is projected to reach $100 billion in the coming years. And companies like SK Hynix are leading the market, while competitors like Micron Technology and Samsung are investing heavily to gain traction. 

With both companies at the center of AI infrastructure development and, by extension, amid significant geopolitical disputes (as always politicians trying to make things worse), Vlad Schepkov conducted a thorough analysis to compare the two companies in terms of technology, valuation, and the new geopolitical reality.

Demand outpaces supply by far so prices can fly

The macroeconomic context for both companies is obvious: for the foreseeable moment, as said, demand is inexhaustible. UBS projects that total revenue from the memory industry will reach $992 billion in 2026 and $1.76 trillion in 2027 while the traditional memory industry, DRAM, is expected........

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