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Lorne Gunter: Liberals ride Chretien's coattails with over-60 demographic

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Political analysts and organizers used to be obsessed with the “gender gap” between male and female voters. If a candidate or party did noticeably better among men, that was seen as a bad thing.

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There is, of course, often still a gender gap. In the 2024 U.S. presidential election then-candidate Donald Trump did so much better among male voters under 35 and among Hispanic men that their support contributed considerably to his win.

There’s currently a significant gap at play in Canadian politics, too, although it’s not a gender gap, it’s an age gap.

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According to a new poll by Abacus Data, if the next federal general election was held only among voters 18 to 59, the Conservatives would win a narrow victory. The results would probably produce a Conservative minority government, but Pierre Poilievre and his party lead among every age group under 60.

Where the gap comes in — and it is huge — is among voters 60 and over. In the seniors’ cohort, the Liberal lead is so enormous if could push Mark Carney and his Liberals in overwhelming majority territory of 200-plus seats.

According to the poll, conducted the last week of February, the Liberals have almost double the support of the Conservatives among older voters — 53 per cent to 29 per cent.

Voters over 60 remember good times under the Liberals, particularly during the Chretien years. Houses and new cars were affordable, groceries cheaper and their disposable incomes higher. Our nation was also well-regarded internationally.

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A good part of older voters’ attraction to the Liberals of Mark Carney is nostalgia.

Justin Trudeau enjoyed this group’s sentimental yearning, too, at first. Yet they turned on him when he turned out to be a dud.

Especially among voters 40 or younger, their only experience of the Liberals was the Trudeau government.

According to a new study by Vancouver’s Fraser Institute, during the 10 years Chretien was in power, Canadians’ living standards grew by 26.4 per cent. During the 10 years of Trudeau, living standards barely budged – rising just 3.4 per cent in an entire decade.

The hangover of the decade of Trudeau incompetence is still with us. For instance, Canada still has the highest food inflation in the G7 — double that of the U.S. — because of increased regulation and diminished investment.

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Voters below 60 tend to understand it is foolhardy to put their faith in the same people who caused the problems to solve those problems. Yet voters over 60 have spent so much of their lives adoring the Liberals, they are hoping against hope that Carney can deliver Canada from the Trudeau gloom.

It’s also no secret that the Liberals are doing better than they were a year ago, just after they had jettisoned Trudeau, because Carney has stolen most of his rivals’ policies. Or at least he has cultivated the appearance he has stolen them.

Carney has changed very little from Trudeau’s era on immigration, crime, housing affordability, obsession with the environment and economic management, but has convinced voters (particularly those over 60) that he and his party have changed. If you vote for him, you can have Conservative policies without Pierre Poilievre’s populism.

He has even convinced older voters to overlook the fact he is running up government debt faster than Trudeau’s record-setting pace.

Then there is the Trump effect.

By going “elbows up” immediately, Carney clearly grabbed a lot of nationalist support while Poilievre floundered around silent for over a year giving the impression he was weak on a U.S. president who loves to bash Canada.

There are still regional differences, of course. According to Abacus, older voters in Alberta and Saskatchewan are as opposed as ever to the Liberals. It’s older voters in central and Atlantic Canada that love them most. But that’s enough to give Carney’s party a 75- to 100-seat majority.

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