*Originally published in 2023. Get E-International Relations delivered to your inbox, free of charge. As you sign up, consider becoming a paid subscriber, or make a donation, to support our work.

Belarus’s Alexander Lukashenko is oftentimes described (unflatteringly) as Europe’s ‘last dictator’. He is certainly a relic of Belarus’s Soviet past, probably Vladimir Putin’s closest “foreign” confidante. He is, thus far, the country’s first and only president. In 1993, he was promoted to lead the Belarusian parliament's anti-corruption commission. Ironically, he thus owes his political break to anti-corruption activities which launched a career based on fear. In recent years his manipulation of European asylum seekers for political gain and his stalwart support for Putin’s war in Ukraine are notorious. In addition, the lengths to which his regime is willing to go to sustain its power make him a feared despot at home and abroad.

Perhaps the bizarre quality of his political absolutism has been the positive associations he inspires with the “rose tinted” memories older citizens have of the Society-era pension regime. It is often forgotten that memory is myopic, since the Presidency delivered a welfare pittance to elderly “heroes” who immediately spent everything to the profit of state shops. The state was the biggest beneficiary of all from that primitive economy. Yet there is a nostalgia factor which is undoubtedly part of Lukashenko’s capacity to maintain his grip. This seems now to be wearing off. Via Al Jazeera, an anonymous but well-placed Belarusian source noted, “I thought he saved us from the wild capitalism of the 1990s, and I voted for him twice… but Russians survived it and are far better off… we are 30 years behind”.

Lukashenko won a sixth term in the August 2020 disputed election which likely fatally terminated Minsk’s prior relationship of sceptical election observation conducted by Western governments. In the post-election period, Belarusian police........

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