As the end of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah approaches with neither side having fulfilled its obligations toward an enduring peace, many people in the Middle East wonder what will happen next.

In late November, Israel and the Shiite political party and Iran-backed militia Hezbollah agreed on a 60-day ceasefire after nearly 14 months of fighting that killed nearly 2,800 people, the vast majority of them Lebanese civilians, according to the government of Lebanon. Large parts of the country's south and Beirut's suburbs have also been heavily damaged.

This weekend, the ceasefire will formally end.

Hezbollah — whose military wing is considered a terrorist group by the US, the EU and other governments — began firing rockets into Israel one day after the Hamas-led terror attacks on October 7, 2023.

The current agreement, brokered by the United States and France, stipulates among other things that Israel must withdraw completely from southern Lebanon by the deadline. Meanwhile, Hezbollah must end its presence south of the Litani River in southern Lebanon, which flows about 30 kilometers (18 miles) north of Israel's border.

So far, the agreement has not been fully respected by either side.

Israel has used military force while searching for suspected Hezbollah weapons depots in villages in southern Lebanon, while, according to media reports, some Hezbollah units are still on the ground.

"Overall, both sides, Israel and Hezbollah, as well as the crisis-ridden Lebanese state have a fundamental interest in maintaining the ceasefire," Merin Abbass, who heads the Friedrich Ebert Foundation's........

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