Belief, border and bombs: What long-term instability in Iran means for Pakistan

On Sunday afternoon, protesters in Islamabad pressed shoulder to shoulder, most of them dressed in black, and chanted slogans that rippled through the crowd. “Death to America, death to Israel,” they shouted in unison. Among them was also Kazim Hussain, who clutched a portrait of Ayatollah Khamenei.

The student, also an activist affiliated with Shia group Imamia Students Organisation (ISO), believes that the crisis unfolding in Iran was not a distant geopolitical conflict playing out beyond Pakistan’s western border. For him, it is deeply personal and emotionally moving.

“This is not just an attack on Iran. It concerns all Shia Muslims,” he said, raising his voice above the chants as the crowd marched toward the US embassy. “The death of Ayatollah Khamenei will not end the movement. It has strengthened it.”

Kazim’s words reflect a growing wave of anger and grief within Pakistan’s Shia community following the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader amid escalating attacks by Israel and the United States, as well as Tehran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel and Gulf states.

The demonstration in Islamabad and other parts of the country, which was carried out hours after Khamenei’s assassination was confirmed by the Iranian state media, turned deadly soon after it commenced. At least 22 protesters, most of them Shia, were killed in violent demonstrations outside the US consulate in Karachi, the US embassy in Islamabad and Skardu.

But beyond the emotional outpour and charged sentiments lies a consequential question for Pakistan: what could prolonged instability in Iran mean for our own fragile security landscape?

Islamabad and Tehran share a 900-kilometre border that has long been vulnerable to militant activity, smuggling networks, and sectarian spillover. Pakistan is also home to an estimated 15 to 20 per cent Shia population, one of the largest outside Iran. Many in this community look to Tehran’s clergy and leadership for religious guidance and, at times, political support.

Experts and Pakistani security officials warn that instability in Iran could increase cross-border movement by armed groups and inflame sectarian tensions within Pakistan’s already polarised society.

For a country already battling insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, facing a hostile Taliban-led government in Afghanistan that Islamabad accuses of sheltering Pakistani militant groups, and grappling with deep internal divisions, instability in a neighbouring state carries tangible security risks.

Pakistan’s precarious balancing act

Pakistan has historically navigated a careful equilibrium between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. Each relationship carries strategic and economic weight for Islamabad.

Saudi Arabia is a key source of financial support and employment for millions of Pakistani workers. Iran carries both geopolitical and religious significance, particularly since the 1979 Islamic Revolution brought Shia clerical leadership to the forefront of regional politics. Meanwhile, the United States plays a........

© Dawn Prism