Perhaps the most fascinating, yet controversial, ‘generational theory’ to emerge in the last two decades or so is the Strauss-Howe generational theory.

Generational theories determine how generations form and share similar values and characteristics. These are shaped by the political, economic and social/cultural paradigms in which a generation exists. These are then critiqued by a new generation to formulate a new set of values and ethos that may have been missing or undermined in the lives of the previous generation.

According to the architects of the Strauss-Howe generational theory — American authors William Strauss and Neil Howe — this process is cyclical. Strauss and Howe first unveiled their theory in 1997 in the book The Fourth Turning. After studying societal shifts in the West from the 15th century onwards, Strauss and Howe posited that history repeats itself after every 70 to 80 years.

This period is often referred to as a ‘saeculum’. According to Strauss and Howe, within every saeculum, are four ‘turnings’ or stages: High, Awakening, Unravelling and Crisis. The fourth turning, Crisis, marks the end of a saeculum and the beginning of a new one. Every stage/turning lasts approximately 20 years.

If history is cyclical, as posited by some generational theorists, is Pakistan about to enter a new era of optimism and prosperity?

The ‘High’ stage is a time of confidence, relative prosperity, feeling of security and a consensus or conformity, enacted to safeguard collective economic and political gains and a sense of security. Strauss and Howe give the example of the US between the end of the Second World War in 1945........

© Dawn (Magazines)