The World Bank has affirmed that the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan does not permit unilateral suspension — a stance Pakistan has maintained consistently. However, how soon India will consider this affirmation and retract its announcement of holding the treaty ‘in abeyance’ remains unclear.

Despite international diplomatic efforts, including Donald Trump’s attempts to mediate a peace deal between the two nuclear-armed nations, uncertainty lingers.

This uncertainty may not immediately impact Pakistan’s economic landscape, but if left unresolved or prolonged beyond a few weeks, it could have serious consequences. This has added complexity to the efforts of Pakistan’s economic managers in crafting a post-conflict strategic framework for the country’s mid-term economic growth and development. It has also made economic forecasting and projections for the next fiscal year, set to begin on July 1, increasingly challenging.

After receiving the second tranche of $1 billion under the ongoing $7bn International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan last week, Pakistan’s balance of payments situation has somewhat stabilised. However, the sharp increase in goods imports in April to about $5.5bn, without a corresponding........

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