During the last quarter of this fiscal year, beginning April 1, Pakistan’s industrial sector may see a stronger policy push for growth as the current regime is working on an industrial revival plan.

Two things are to be considered: first, the potential revival plan’s implementation will remain subject to the continuation of the tenous political stability, the extent of success in the anti-terrorism campaign and the International Monetary Fund’s approval for support for industries.

Second, even if all goes well, the industrial sector, particularly large-scale manufacturing (LSM), will respond to the policy push with a considerable time lag, and exports, too, will take time to capitalise on it.

This means that the current fiscal year will end on a disappointing note for LSM, and the growth of goods exports will also be limited. This may keep economic growth on the lower side of the State Bank of Pakistan’s projected range of 2.5-3.5 per cent and the initial target of 3.6pc set by the current regime.

So, there is apparently no immediate relief in sight for tens of millions of unemployed people. Slower growth in exports, meanwhile, would allow further expansion in the trade deficit, taking a toll on the current account and challenging the exchange rate stability.

Every successive government comes up with new policies, sometimes under political considerations and often due........

© Dawn Business