With March ending relatively cool (average temperature according to meteorological officials recorded at 27.6°C), wheat crops might have had the chance to recover from earlier losses caused by smog at the tillering stage in November, loss of acreage and a long dry spell early this year.

At least farmers and Punjab’s agriculture officials are hopeful, though at varying levels. Apart from a cooler March, the agriculture bureaucracy in the province also counts positive policy impacts of initiatives like subsidised solarisation of tubewells, Kissan and Livestock Cards, distribution of laser-levellers and e-credit for a better, if not bumper, crop.

Based on these factors, they hope wheat will cross 21 million tonnes.

Alas, these hopes are not without critique by those who base their case on the massive loss of acreage — 16.25m acres this year against 17.44m acres last year. Official average yields were recorded at 34.74 maunds per acre a year ago. There is no way the crop can even come close to that average rate this year; the long dry spell has largely ruined the crop in 2m acres of rain-fed areas.

Wheat crop size and price remain up in the air owing to weathering challenges, loss of acreage and the end of provincial procurement

In the plains of the province, long dry spells, followed by rains, heavy hail and thunderstorms, hit three central districts during March; all these negative factors........

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